SCENARIOS: No clear winner in Palestinian election

(Reuters) - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called elections on Friday, scheduling a presidential and parliamentary ballot for January 24. None of the scenarios facing the embattled leader is particularly appealing.

- If there is no pact between his Fatah movement and its Islamist rival Hamas, Western-backed Abbas will have to go it alone, fielding candidates in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip where the Islamists can easily derail the vote. Such a ballot could cement the deep split in Palestinian ranks.

- Hamas, which won the last parliamentary election, has said it will prevent elections in absence of a deal with Fatah. A senior official from Hamas' government in the Gaza Strip said the Islamist group was considering holding a separate election in response to Abbas' decree.

- Hamas could also unilaterally name a president as Abbas's successor as his term ends in January, a move that would further deepen the rift. Abbas had offered to delay elections until June provided Hamas had agreed to an Egyptian-brokered reconciliation process, but that pact was stillborn. An aide to Abbas on Friday indicated this was still a possibility.

- The right-leaning Israeli government is unlikely to allow elections to be held in Arab East Jerusalem which Israel captured in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognized internationally. A ban on voting in Jerusalem -- although Israel did allow it under international pressure in 1996 and in 2006 -- could weaken Abbas and raise questions about legitimacy of the vote, a card Hamas would heavily exploit.

- Holding a vote without Hamas might lead to the Palestinians having two rival presidents, two parliaments and two prime ministers, in a huge setback to the Palestinian goal of establishing a state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital.

- If, however, a last-gasp deal between Fatah and Hamas were reached, paving the way for elections in June, Abbas could reschedule the vote for next summer.

(Compiled by Mohammed Assadi; Editing by Dominic Evans)