UPDATE 4-Vestas keeps 2009 guidance as Q3 tops forecasts

* EBIT rises to 244 mln EUR, beating all estimates

* Company keeps full-year 2009 guidance

* Sees 2010 revenue of 7-8 bln EUR, EBIT margin of 10-12 pct

* Targets 2015 EBIT margin of 15 pct and revenue 15 bln DKK

* U.S. recovery key to hitting medium term targets

(Adds details, quotes; updates share price to close)

By John Acher

COPENHAGEN, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Danish wind turbine builder Vestas (VWS.CO) beat third-quarter profit forecasts, stuck to its full-year 2009 guidance against expectations of a downgrade and laid out new targets for growth and profitability to 2015.

Shares in Vestas leapt nearly 12 percent to a four-week high before cooling partly but still closing up 7.6 percent at 357.75 crowns, against the trend of the FTSE clean technology index .FTET50, which fell 0.5 percent.

Chief Executive Ditlev Engel said in a presentation in New York: "For 2010 we are seeing a global market in recovery."

Much still depends, Engel said, on the speed of recovery in the United States, where orders for wind turbines dropped off steeply during the financial and economic crisis.

But he said he saw determination in the United States to "re-engage in a big way" in the wind energy market.

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) at the world's biggest producer of wind turbines rose to 244 million euros ($366.9 million) in July-September from 160 million in the same quarter last year, Vestas Wind Systems A/S said.

The result beat all estimates in a Reuters survey of 15 analysts, which ranged from 78 million to 223 million euros.

"Both the third quarter and their expectations are extremely positive," said Jyske Bank analyst Christian Nagstrup.

Prices of some components have come off their 2008 peaks and are unlikely to rise in the near term because of weak economic growth, Vestas said.

Analysts said the better-than-forecast operating results appeared to come from lower costs, including the effect of lay-offs earlier in the year, and a better mix of projects as some projects are more profitable than others.

Vestas stuck to its previous guidance for full-year 2009 revenues of 7.2 billion euros and an operating margin of between 11 and 13 percent, despite widespread expectations among analysts that it would lower its guidance.

Vestas said it expected to announce several billion euros of orders in the coming months to help secure its 2010 outlook.

For 2010 Vestas forecast an EBIT margin of 10-12 percent and revenues of 7-8 billion euros, roughly meeting market forecasts.

Engel said that the 1 percentage point lower guidance for 2010 than for 2009 reflected the uncertainty in the market, but said performance could be at the high end of the range if the U.S. market recovers faster than anticipated.

"In general, Vestas expects that prices and conditions remain unchanged in 2010 relative to 2009," the company said.

The U.S. market, however, has excess capacity, leading to "unattractive" prices and terms on some projects, it said.

NEW 2015 GUIDANCE

Vestas introduced longer-term guidance, which analysts said was ambitious and contributed to lifting the stock.

"Vestas expects to achieve an EBIT margin of 15 percent and revenue of 15 billion euros not later than 2015," Vestas said, dubbing the targets its "Triple15" strategy.

It added that such growth corresponded to its view raising wind's position alongside fossil fuels as a source of energy.

Alm. Brand analyst Michael Friis Jorgensen said he considered the 2015 guidance "super-aggressive" relative to market expectations and said there were big questions about how Vestas would achieve such a big improvement in margin in a competitive market fraught with overcapacity.

For the last 12 months the credit crunch has dented orders in the wind industry, which have slid from 2007-2008 levels.

ORDER INTAKE

Vestas said 2009 order intake was "a negative surprise".

Order intake in the year-to-date was 2.1 billion euros at the end of the third quarter, against 6.4 billion in the full year 2008. Despite the drop, analysts said third-quarter order intake beat expectations.

Engel said Vestas had not seen customers cancelling orders already in the orderbook and he added: "These are the firm and unconditional orders."

Vestas is the world leader with a fifth of the market, ahead of rivals such as General Electric (GE.N) of the U.S., Gamesa (GAM.MC) and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.LS) of Spain and Germany's Siemens (SIEGn.DE), Nordex NDXGk.DE and REpower RPWGn.DE.

Of the pure-play wind turbine makers, Gamesa and REpower are due to post quarterly results on Nov. 12 and Nordex on Nov. 24. (Additional reporting by Karin Jensen, Henriette Jacobsen and Peter Starck in Copenhagen; editing by Will Waterman and Simon Jessop)