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INSTANT VIEW: U.S. durable goods orders rose in Sept
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose 1 percent in September, meeting Wall Street expectations, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday.
KEY POINTS: * This was the second increase in the last three months, and followed an unrevised 2.6 percent decline in August. Compared with a year ago, orders were down 24.1 percent. * Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing, which in turn provides a good measure of overall business health. * Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, beat expectations and rose 2 percent in September after falling 0.8 percent the month before. * Analysts had anticipated they would increase 0.9 percent.
COMMENTS:
STEVE GOLDMAN, MARKET STRATEGIST, WEEDEN & CO., GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT:
"Well it was in-line with expectations. The market is having a 63 percent rally, 48 percent retracement of all the losses out of the bear market, a lot of this has been anticipated. Generally it becomes a more challenging environment having had the rally that we've had. So again, in-line with expectations and not really swinging prices this morning."
MICHAEL MORAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAIWA SECURITIES AMERICA, NEW YORK:
"We saw an increase in durable goods orders which was welcome, but it was not a large increase. If you focus on the underlying trend, it's only modestly upward.
"We are off the lows in orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, often seen as a proxy for business spending. We are off the lows, moving higher, but not at a vigorous pace. There is still a good bit of uncertainty on the part of business executives about the economic outlook and as a result we are seeing cautious behavior. You can see that in businesses inventory management, order flows, and capital spending plans."
PETER BOOCKVAR, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MILLER TABAK & CO, NEW YORK:
"Durable goods was about in-line with expectations, both headline and ex-transports. The core gain in orders was led by a 7.9 percent rise in machinery. Computers and electronic orders fell for a second month, shipments, which get directly plugged into the GDP calculation, rose 0.8 percent and are up for all of the third quarter, thus contributing to the Q3 GDP rebound which we will see confirmation tomorrow. The moderation in the inventory decline in Q3 relative to Q2 will also provide a statistical boost to the GDP. The Q3 GDP rebound is old news now and thus sustainability is the open question."
ARTHUR HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, JEFFERIES & CO, BOSTON:
"The core numbers, which are the numbers that take out the transportation component, not only looks good but what's more important is that we have improved tremendously over the last several months. As early as two months ago, this was a number that was in the negative territory. Of course, the market this morning is not reacting so much to the economic data but it is a tremendous achievement, a trend that hopefully continues."
GARY THAYER, MACROSTRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO ADVISORS, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:
"Orders bounced back in September. We've had a lot of volatility in orders because of the cash for clunkers program, but it looks like orders have stabilized outside of the auto sector. Non-transportation orders were up in September, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months. It looks like we're not just getting a temporary burst in activity because of the car sales incentive program.
"We're beginning to see some tentative signs of stabilization in capital spending, but there is still a lot of excess capacity so we will probably see only a gradual turnaround there until the recovery gets well established."
JAMES O'SULLIVAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MF GLOBAL, NEW YORK:
"There are no real surprises. It's consistent with the 50 ISM readings that show U.S. manufacturing is growing. Inventory is still falling so that's a positive in the months ahead for orders."
DAVID KATZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MATRIX ASSET ADVISORS, NEW YORK:
"Basically, the number was in line with expectations and was the fourth rise in six months. That's a positive indicator. In a recovering economy, you'll get three steps forward and then two steps back. That's what you're seeing here. This data point is positive.
"The market has had a great run and earnings season has been strong compared with expectations. We wouldn't read anything into the breather we've been having, and we would use any weakness to build our positions on the expectation that we'll have a strong end to the year."
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures extend fall BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices little changed DOLLAR: Euro briefly extends losses versus U.S. dollar
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