The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico and Related
Composite Economic Indexes for August 2009

NEW YORK, Oct. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.1 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) increased 0.6 percent in August.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased for the sixth
consecutive
month in August. Apart from the construction component of industrial
production, most of the leading indicators contributed positively to
the
index this month. The leading economic index increased 11.7 percent
(about a 24.9 percent annual rate) between February and August 2009, a
sharp reversal from the decrease of 17.1 percent (about a -31.2
percent
annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths
among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent
months.

-- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased for the second straight
month in August, with all its components making positive
contributions.
Between February and August 2009, the coincident economic index
decreased 0.9 percent (about a -1.9 percent annual rate), slower than
the decline of 5.0 percent (about a -9.7 percent annual rate) during
the
previous six months. However, the weaknesses among the coincident
indicators have remained very widespread, with none of the components
increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined at a
4.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2009, a large
improvement from the contraction of 21.2 percent annual rate in the
first quarter of the year.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico, which was on a steep downtrend
between July 2008 and February 2009, has risen sharply for half a year
now amid widespread strength among its components. Meanwhile, The
Conference Board CEI for Mexico has increased for the past two months,
after declining continuously since the middle of last year. All in
all,
the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the
downturn
in economic activity is bottoming out, and that the economy may begin
to
recover soon.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Mexico increased in August. The positive contributors to the
index -- from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one -- are the
US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the
(inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, and net insufficient inventories.
The industrial production construction component decreased in August, while
the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 1.1 percent increase in August, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico
now stands at 111.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased
1.2 percent in July and increased 2.2 percent in June. During the six-month
span through August, the index increased 11.7 percent, with five of the six
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

The next release is scheduled for Monday, November 23, 2009 at
11:00 A.M. (ET)
In Mexico - Monday, November 23, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CST)

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board
CEI for Mexico increased in August. The positive contributors -- from the
largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are industrial production,
retail sales, and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)

With the increase of 0.6 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for
Mexico now stands at 105.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index
increased 0.4 percent in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June. During the
six-month span through August, the index decreased 0.9 percent, with none of
the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0
percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes
reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M.
October 27, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2009 6-month
Jun Jul Aug Feb to Aug

Leading index 108.8 r 110.1 r 111.3
Percent Change 2.2 r 1.2 r 1.1 11.7
Diffusion 83.3 r 83.3 75.0 83.3

Coincident Index 104.6 105.0 105.6
Percent Change -0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.9
Diffusion 33.3 83.3 100.0 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci

SOURCE The Conference Board

Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, or Media, Frank Tortorici,
+1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, all of The Conference
Board