LME STEEL-Billet stabilises but buying remains scant

* Billet at $380-410 a tonne, scrap around $250

* Glimmers of demand in Turkey offer hope

* Market eyes slew of reports from steelmakers

By Rebekah Curtis

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Steel billet prices in the Black Sea stabilised this week, supported by signs that scrap prices were unlikely to fall further.

But traders voiced concern that some scant signs of buying picking up may merely be symptomatic of bargain hunting in the market, as opposed to signs of real demand.

Traders quoted Black Sea free-on-board (fob) billet between $380 and $410 a tonne, unchanged from a week earlier. Scrap prices remained around $250 a tonne, in keeping with the week before.

"Now that scrap is at a comfortably low level, there should be a bold return of Turkish buying in the scrap market," a trader said. "Traders are expecting that if scrap prices start to move up...then black sea billet will follow suit."

The broad picture for actual demand remained glum.

"There are some pockets of demand in North Africa and the Middle East, there is some construction activity going on there," the trader added. "But it's not enough to support the whole market, because Europe is dead."

WIDESPREAD GLOOM

Other traders felt the weak demand picture was more widespread: "There is a little bit of improved demand in Turkey for merchant bar exports, but really that's the only market," one dealer said.

"Asia is flat, North Africa is flat, Egypt is terrible, the Middle East is bad, and the European markets are absolutely dreadful."

Demand for finished products is particularly weak.

Billet prices have risen above $400 a tonne since early August, as producers have restarted some of the idled capacity due to improved orders. But many traders have attributed the price rise to cost pressures.

Scrap, a key ingredient in long steel, has declined less than steel prices and therefore has supported the billet price.

The market has eyed a slew of updates from U.S. and European steelmakers, many of which have disappointed investors as producers continue to grapple with languishing demand.

To see an analysis on the outlook for steelmakers, click on: [ID:nN27268767]

"In Western Europe and North America, while some recovery in demand could be expected from next year, it is not likely that demand will recover back to 2008 levels even in 2012," said Siddhartha Sengupta, managing consultant of Hatch Beddows in London.

"Therefore the capacity overhang is likely to be serious in Western Europe and North America."

He added that a demand situation was rosier in Asia, where recovery was taking hold.

On the London Metal Exchange, the Mediterranean three-month contract FMD3=LX was last indicated at $365/380 a tonne, barely changed from around $359/380 a tonne a week before.

There was no trade for the three-month Far East contract FFD3=LX. The cash price was last quoted at $495 a tonne FFD3, in keeping with the week before.

LME steel inventories in LME registered warehouses were reported as unchanged in the far east and Mediterranean.

LME stocks stood at 30,745 the week before. (Editing by Sue Thomas)