FACTBOX-Glaxo takes biggest slice of swine flu market

Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:06am EDT

Oct 30 (Reuters) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) is on track to reap the biggest H1N1 swine flu windfall among major drugmakers, according to latest information from companies.

The British-based group is ahead even though it will supply very little vaccine to the United States, where officials have decided not to use shots containing adjuvants, or boosters, of the kind used in Europe and elsewhere.

Here's how orders for pandemic flu vaccines and drugs stack up:

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

* CEO Andrew Witty says analyst forecasts for around 1 billion pounds ($1.66 billion) of H1N1 vaccine sales in the fourth quarter are "pretty close to being right". Similar sales are forecast for the first quarter of 2010.

* Glaxo has vaccine orders totalling more than 440 million doses. The developed world price is about 5 pounds a dose, with poor countries paying less.

* Glaxo is also increasing its capacity to make flu drug Relenza, sales of which already hit 464 million pounds in the nine months to end-September. [ID:nLR454208]

ROCHE (ROG.VX)

* Expects full-year sales of antiviral drug Tamiflu of about 2.7 billion Swiss francs ($2.65 billion) and sees a further contribution of 400-700 million francs in 2010.

* Most of this year's Tamiflu sales are due to the pandemic -- third-quarter sales of 1 billion francs were 10 times the year-ago level. [ID:nLD628052]

SANOFI-AVENTIS (SASY.PA)

* Expects approximately $500 million sales of H1N1 vaccines in the fourth quarter and predicts business will remain at a similar level in the first part of 2010.

* Third-quarter H1N1 sales amounted to $78 million, including first shipments of vaccine to the United States. [ID:nSP443666]

NOVARTIS (NOVN.VX)

* Expects fourth-quarter H1N1 vaccine sales of $400-700 million, with $600 million its best estimate, and says it is on track to meet commitments to the U.S. market. [ID:nLT326192]

* Sales of $17 million of H1N1 vaccine booked in the third quarter.

ASTRAZENECA (AZN.L)

* Only supplying the U.S. market and offering nasal spray H1N1 vaccine rather than injections. Third-quarter sales were $152 million.

* Total U.S. order for around 40 million doses, worth $453 million, and expected to be completed by early 2010. [ID:nLT224956]

BAXTER INTERNATIONAL (BAX.N)

* Expects fourth-quarter sales of $30-40 million for its cell culture-based flu vaccine. [ID:nN15287738] ($1=.6041 Pound) ($1=1.018 Swiss Franc) (Compiled by Ben Hirschler; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)