US Products Outlook-Closed arb keep mogas in Europe

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TORONTO | Mon Nov 2, 2009 1:41pm EST

TORONTO Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gasoline prices are seen holding steady after gaining slightly last week on lack of arbitrage opportunities from Europe but high inventories are seen keeping a ceiling on prices, traders said on Monday.

Shipping sources said November swaps levels show the November transatlantic arb to be closed as stronger demand and prices from West Africa pull European barrels.

New York Harbor gasoline prices firmed slightly last week as outages of key plants outside the United States, like Hess' Hovensa refinery and Irving's Saint John, New Brunswick refinery, cut imports.

"We have had lower imports for a while now," said one New York Harbor gasoline trader, who expects prices to stay rangebound as the nation's inventories are in the upper limit of the average range.

Lower imports have been supportive of crack spreads. Monday's 3-2-1 gasoline crack spreads are seen almost $2 softer than last week's high over $7.00 a barrel after refinery runs picked up.

Gasoline supplies are plentiful in the U.S. Gulf Coast, and are expected to grow as refiners come off turnarounds. Midwestern values are also seen ample despite work scheduled for Flint Hill's Pine Bend, Minnesota refinery, traders said.

Weak demand for distillates in Europe has closed the arb for barrels from the U.S. Gulf, where shipping restrictions have kept barrels in the region.

In the Northeast, the world's largest consumer of heating oil, slightly below normal temperatures are not seen being cold enough to draw down stocks, traders said.

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