Armenian nationalists may derail peace with Turkey

YEREVAN (Reuters) - The historic prospect of peace with longtime foe Turkey has roused angry opposition among powerful Armenian nationalists, which could yet undermine President Serzh Sarksyan and torpedo the whole process.

Under accords signed last month, Christian Armenia and Muslim Turkey agreed to establish diplomatic relations and reopen their frontier, overcoming a century of hostility stemming from the World War One mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks.

Peace would bring big economic benefits to poor, landlocked Armenia, while Turkey would burnish its credentials as a potential EU entry state and a reliable energy transit country by solving a border dispute.

Villagers in the border region, an unforgiving landscape of rock and barren land, enthuse about new trade routes beyond the guard towers manned by soldiers of Armenian ally Russia.

Workers are preparing to lay new rail tracks.

But the killings of last century -- considered genocide by some European nations and Western historians though Turkey disputes this -- remain a defining element of Armenian identity.

The deal must be ratified by both parliaments, but is stirring resentment, particularly among diaspora Armenians, of which many are descendents of those who fled modern-day Turkey.

The huge diaspora is the source of crucial donations and remittances for the country of 3.2 million people, whose already struggling economy is forecast to contract 15 percent in 2009.

Opponents say the accords undermine Armenia's pursuit for further 'genocide' recognition and effectively give up claims to parts of eastern Turkey as an Armenian homeland.

"This is an act of complicity where the Armenian state and presidency is taking part in the burial of the Armenian question and in the ceding of rights to memory, to homeland and ultimately the right of return to the ancestral patrimony," said Raffi Hovannisian of the opposition Heritage Party.

U.S.-born Hovannisian, grandson of four survivors of the killings, said: "This is one of those visceral, existential issues that go to the core of Armenian identity and rights."

Armenia says 1.5 million Armenians died in systematic massacres aimed at the extermination of its people. Turkey says there was no such campaign, the death figure is far lower and that many Muslims also died in partisan fighting.

Sarksyan was met by angry protests by Armenians in Europe, the Middle East and United States last month. He argues the accords renounce nothing and contain no preconditions.

REBEL REGION

Under the deal, a commission will investigate the killings. Hovannissian said it would discuss the issue "ad infinitum."

Damaged by deadly violence that followed his election last year, analysts say Sarksyan wants a foreign policy victory.

But Turkey, faced with a backlash from Muslim ally Azerbaijan, has now raised the stakes by saying it will only ratify the accords if Armenia gives ground in negotiations over the rebel province of Nagorno-Karabakh.

This has seriously complicated the peace process.

Backed by Armenia, ethnic Armenians in the mountain region threw off Azeri rule in war that erupted with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Some 30,000 people died and Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan.

Propped up by Yerevan, the region runs its own affairs.

Many ordinary Armenians say they are more concerned about the economic benefits of peace than old feuds with Turkey.

"Our diaspora lives well," said a man who gave his name as Ovik in the border village of Getap. "They can go anywhere, to Turkey as tourists, while we can only look at Turkey from here."

"Genocide is genocide, no one doubts that it was genocide or that it took place," he said. "But we should move forward."

At the Akhurian railway station on the border, workers are readying new tracks. Station master Karine Petrosyan hopes to increase her 36,500 Dram ($95) monthly wage and see a return to the days when 50 people worked at the station, rather than five.

The Armenian opposition appears too weak to derail the thaw with Turkey. But if Sarksyan is perceived to be involved in a trade-off over Nagorno-Karabakh, it would be political dynamite.

Nagorno-Karabakh cost former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan his job in 1998 when he was forced to resign over concessions he offered to Azerbaijan. A climbdown now from military victory, as part of a deal with Turkey, would likely spark public outrage.

Analysts say Turkey could drop the condition as it nears the 95th anniversary of the killings next April, when Armenians hope U.S. President Barack Obama will keep a campaign promise to label them genocide in a traditional presidential statement.

Or Ankara could hold out for Armenian concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh. Sarksyan looks unlikely to play along.

"A success with Turkey is enough for both greater legitimacy and statesmanship, making Nagorno-Karabakh that much riskier politically," said Richard Giragosian, the American director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies.

"I really think if he wants to be bold and go for the Nobel Prize and do something on (Nagorno) Karabakh, he's gone."