Fitch Downgrades GSMS 2005-GG4; Assigns Outlooks & LS Ratings
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CHICAGO--(Business Wire)-- Fitch Ratings has downgraded, removed from Rating Watch Negative, and assigned Rating Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings to certain classes of commercial mortgage pass-through certificates from GS Mortgage Securities Corporation II series 2005-GG4. A detailed list of rating actions follows at the end of this release. The downgrades are the result of loss expectations and reflect Fitch's prospective views regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow declines. Fitch forecasts potential losses of 5.4% for this transaction, should market conditions not recover. Today's rating actions are based on losses of 5.2%, including 100% of the losses associated with term defaults and any losses associated with maturities within the next five years. Given the significant term to maturity, Fitch's actions account for 25% of the losses associated with maturities beyond five years. The bonds with Negative Outlooks indicate classes that may be downgraded in the future. To determine potential defaults for each loan, Fitch assumed cash flow would decline by 10% from year-end 2008. That is consistent with the analysis used in its review of recent vintage transactions whereby cash flow was assumed to decline 15% from year-end 2007 projected over a three-year period. If the stressed cash flow would cause the loan to fall below 0.95 times (x) DSCR, Fitch assumed the loan would default during the term. To determine losses, Fitch used the above stressed cash flow and applied a market cap rate by property type, ranging between 7.5% and 9.5%, to derive a value. If the loan balance at default is less than Fitch's derived value, the loan would realize that amount of loss. These loss estimates were reviewed in more detail for loans representing 43.4% of the pool and, in certain cases, revised based on additional information and/or property characteristics. Loss expectations attributed to loans reviewed in detail represent approximately 95% of the recognized losses. Approximately 21.8% of the mortgages mature within the next five years as follows: 12.6% in 2010, 7.9% in 2012 and 0.4% in 2013 and 0.9% in 2014. In 2015, 69.6% of the pool is scheduled to mature. Fitch identified 22 Loans of Concern (20%) within the pool, seven of which (6.2%) are specially serviced. Of the specially serviced loans, two (1.1%) are current. Two of the specially serviced loans are within the transaction's top 15 loans (37.3%) by unpaid principal balance. Six of the Loans of Concern (11.4%) within the top 15 loans are assumed to default during the term, with loss severities ranging from 20% to 40%. Fitch expects that the remaining nine of the top 15 loans may default at maturity based on an insufficient accrued equity position as calculated in Fitch's refinance test. A loan would pass the refinance test if the stressed cash flow would achieve a 1.25x DSCR as calculated based on a 30 year amortization schedule and an 8% coupon. The largest contributors to loss are as follows: Astor Crowne Plaza (2.1%), King's Shops (1.9%) and The District at Green Valley Ranch (1.8%). The Astor Crown Plaza loan is collateralized by a 707 room full-service hotel located in New Orleans, LA. The property sustained minor damage from Hurricane Katrina in September 2005 and was transferred to the special servicer. The loan was briefly transferred back to the master servicer in early 2009 prior to defaulting in June 2009 as a result of the economic downturn. The hotel completed a property improvement plan in 2008. As of YE 2008 Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR were 46.8%, $131.58 and $61.58, respectively, compared to 71.4%, $127.22 and $90.80 at issuance. The King's Shops loan is collateralized by a 73,500 square foot (SF) retail center located in Waikoloa, HI. Major tenants include Macy's (14% of net rentable area [NRA]), Blazin Steaks (8% NRA) and Roy's Waikoloa Bar & Grill (7% NRA). As of June 30, 2009 the servicer reported DSCR and occupancy were 1.18x and 89.9%, respectively, compared to 1.51x and 100% at issuance. Tenant sales as of year-end 2008 had declined approximately 30% due primarily to a decline in tourism in the area. Fitch considers it likely that the loan will default at its upcoming maturity date in February 2010. The District at Green Valley Ranch is collateralized by a 212,500 SF anchored retail center located in Henderson, NV. The loan transferred to the special servicer in November 2009 due to imminent default. The property has experienced declining occupancy and increased expenses since issuance as a result of the economic decline which had an outsize impact on Las Vegas and the surrounding area. Major tenants include REI (10% NRA), Pottery Barn (6% NRA) and Anthropologie (5% NRA). As of June 30, 2009 the servicer reported DSCR and occupancy were 0.96x and 87.9%, respectively, compared to 1.29x and 97% at issuance. Fitch has downgraded, removed from Rating Watch Negative, and assigned Rating Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings to the following classes as indicated: --$300.1 million class A-J to 'AA/LS3' from 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; --$65 million class B to 'A/LS5' from 'AA'; Outlook Stable; --$35 million class C to 'A/LS5' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable; --$75 million class D to 'BB/LS5' from 'A'; Outlook Stable; --$40 million class E to 'BB/LS5' from 'A-'; Outlook Stable; --$55 million class F to 'BB/LS5' from 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable; --$45 million class G to 'B/LS5' from 'BBB'; Outlook Negative; --$40 million class H to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative. --$20 million class J to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB'; Outlook Negative; --$20 million class K to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB-'; Outlook Negative; --$20 million class L to 'B-/LS5' from 'B+'; Outlook Negative; --$10 million class M to 'B-/LS5' from 'B'; Outlook Negative; --$10 million class N to 'CCC/RR6' from 'B-'. Fitch has revised the Recovery Rating on the following class as indicated: --$10 million class O to 'CCC/RR6' from 'CCC/RR1'. Fitch has affirmed the following classes and assigned LS ratings as indicated: --$57.9 million class A-1 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$28.9 million class A-1P at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$102.4 million class A-DP at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$349.9 million class A-2 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$288.7 million class A-3 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$207.3 million class A-ABA at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$29.6 million class A-ABB at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$500 million class A-4 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$1.2 billion class A-4A at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$167.4 million class A-4B at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --$169 million class A-1A at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; --Interest-only class X-P at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; --Interest-only class X-C at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable. Fitch does not rate the $54.4 million class P. Additional information on Fitch's amended criteria for analyzing recent vintage U.S. CMBS is available in the July 8, 2009 report, 'Surveillance Methodology for Recent Vintage U.S. CMBS' is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Criteria Reports Fitch will release a report titled 'GS Mortgage Securities Corporation II series 2005-GG4' that will contain a graph of revised loss expectations for the transaction at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Special Reports Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. Fitch Ratings Brook Sutherland, +1-312-606-2346, Chicago Britt Johnson, +1-312-606-2341, Chicago Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278, New York sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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