Fitch Downgrades GSMS 2005-GG4; Assigns Outlooks & LS Ratings

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Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:19am EST

CHICAGO--(Business Wire)--
Fitch Ratings has downgraded, removed from Rating Watch Negative, and assigned
Rating Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings to certain classes of commercial
mortgage pass-through certificates from GS Mortgage Securities Corporation II
series 2005-GG4. A detailed list of rating actions follows at the end of this
release. 

The downgrades are the result of loss expectations and reflect Fitch's
prospective views regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow
declines. Fitch forecasts potential losses of 5.4% for this transaction, should
market conditions not recover. Today's rating actions are based on losses of
5.2%, including 100% of the losses associated with term defaults and any losses
associated with maturities within the next five years. Given the significant
term to maturity, Fitch's actions account for 25% of the losses associated with
maturities beyond five years. The bonds with Negative Outlooks indicate classes
that may be downgraded in the future. 

To determine potential defaults for each loan, Fitch assumed cash flow would
decline by 10% from year-end 2008. That is consistent with the analysis used in
its review of recent vintage transactions whereby cash flow was assumed to
decline 15% from year-end 2007 projected over a three-year period. If the
stressed cash flow would cause the loan to fall below 0.95 times (x) DSCR, Fitch
assumed the loan would default during the term. To determine losses, Fitch used
the above stressed cash flow and applied a market cap rate by property type,
ranging between 7.5% and 9.5%, to derive a value. If the loan balance at default
is less than Fitch's derived value, the loan would realize that amount of loss.
These loss estimates were reviewed in more detail for loans representing 43.4%
of the pool and, in certain cases, revised based on additional information
and/or property characteristics. Loss expectations attributed to loans reviewed
in detail represent approximately 95% of the recognized losses. 

Approximately 21.8% of the mortgages mature within the next five years as
follows: 12.6% in 2010, 7.9% in 2012 and 0.4% in 2013 and 0.9% in 2014. In 2015,
69.6% of the pool is scheduled to mature. 

Fitch identified 22 Loans of Concern (20%) within the pool, seven of which
(6.2%) are specially serviced. Of the specially serviced loans, two (1.1%) are
current. Two of the specially serviced loans are within the transaction's top 15
loans (37.3%) by unpaid principal balance. 

Six of the Loans of Concern (11.4%) within the top 15 loans are assumed to
default during the term, with loss severities ranging from 20% to 40%. Fitch
expects that the remaining nine of the top 15 loans may default at maturity
based on an insufficient accrued equity position as calculated in Fitch's
refinance test. A loan would pass the refinance test if the stressed cash flow
would achieve a 1.25x DSCR as calculated based on a 30 year amortization
schedule and an 8% coupon. 

The largest contributors to loss are as follows: Astor Crowne Plaza (2.1%),
King's Shops (1.9%) and The District at Green Valley Ranch (1.8%). 

The Astor Crown Plaza loan is collateralized by a 707 room full-service hotel
located in New Orleans, LA. The property sustained minor damage from Hurricane
Katrina in September 2005 and was transferred to the special servicer. The loan
was briefly transferred back to the master servicer in early 2009 prior to
defaulting in June 2009 as a result of the economic downturn. The hotel
completed a property improvement plan in 2008. As of YE 2008 Occupancy, ADR and
RevPAR were 46.8%, $131.58 and $61.58, respectively, compared to 71.4%, $127.22
and $90.80 at issuance. 

The King's Shops loan is collateralized by a 73,500 square foot (SF) retail
center located in Waikoloa, HI. Major tenants include Macy's (14% of net
rentable area [NRA]), Blazin Steaks (8% NRA) and Roy's Waikoloa Bar & Grill (7%
NRA). As of June 30, 2009 the servicer reported DSCR and occupancy were 1.18x
and 89.9%, respectively, compared to 1.51x and 100% at issuance. Tenant sales as
of year-end 2008 had declined approximately 30% due primarily to a decline in
tourism in the area. Fitch considers it likely that the loan will default at its
upcoming maturity date in February 2010. 

The District at Green Valley Ranch is collateralized by a 212,500 SF anchored
retail center located in Henderson, NV. The loan transferred to the special
servicer in November 2009 due to imminent default. The property has experienced
declining occupancy and increased expenses since issuance as a result of the
economic decline which had an outsize impact on Las Vegas and the surrounding
area. Major tenants include REI (10% NRA), Pottery Barn (6% NRA) and
Anthropologie (5% NRA). As of June 30, 2009 the servicer reported DSCR and
occupancy were 0.96x and 87.9%, respectively, compared to 1.29x and 97% at
issuance. 

Fitch has downgraded, removed from Rating Watch Negative, and assigned Rating
Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings to the following classes as indicated: 

--$300.1 million class A-J to 'AA/LS3' from 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; 

--$65 million class B to 'A/LS5' from 'AA'; Outlook Stable; 

--$35 million class C to 'A/LS5' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable; 

--$75 million class D to 'BB/LS5' from 'A'; Outlook Stable; 

--$40 million class E to 'BB/LS5' from 'A-'; Outlook Stable; 

--$55 million class F to 'BB/LS5' from 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable; 

--$45 million class G to 'B/LS5' from 'BBB'; Outlook Negative; 

--$40 million class H to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative. 

--$20 million class J to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB'; Outlook Negative; 

--$20 million class K to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB-'; Outlook Negative; 

--$20 million class L to 'B-/LS5' from 'B+'; Outlook Negative; 

--$10 million class M to 'B-/LS5' from 'B'; Outlook Negative; 

--$10 million class N to 'CCC/RR6' from 'B-'. 

Fitch has revised the Recovery Rating on the following class as indicated: 

--$10 million class O to 'CCC/RR6' from 'CCC/RR1'. 

Fitch has affirmed the following classes and assigned LS ratings as indicated: 

--$57.9 million class A-1 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$28.9 million class A-1P at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$102.4 million class A-DP at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$349.9 million class A-2 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$288.7 million class A-3 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$207.3 million class A-ABA at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$29.6 million class A-ABB at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$500 million class A-4 at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$1.2 billion class A-4A at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$167.4 million class A-4B at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--$169 million class A-1A at 'AAA/LS2'; Outlook Stable; 

--Interest-only class X-P at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; 

--Interest-only class X-C at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable. 

Fitch does not rate the $54.4 million class P. 

Additional information on Fitch's amended criteria for analyzing recent vintage
U.S. CMBS is available in the July 8, 2009 report, 'Surveillance Methodology for
Recent Vintage U.S. CMBS' is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the
following headers: 

Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Criteria Reports 

Fitch will release a report titled 'GS Mortgage Securities Corporation II series
2005-GG4' that will contain a graph of revised loss expectations for the
transaction at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the following headers: 

Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Special Reports 

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. 

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS.
PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK:
HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING
DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S
PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND
METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF
CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE
AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF
CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.

Fitch Ratings
Brook Sutherland, +1-312-606-2346, Chicago
Britt Johnson, +1-312-606-2341, Chicago
Media Relations:
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278, New York
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com

Copyright Business Wire 2009

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