UPDATE 1-US commercial paper market shrinks a 2nd week -Fed

Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:09am EST

(Adds context, analyst comment, byline)

By John Parry and Walden Siew

NEW YORK Nov 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. commercial paper market shrank for a second straight week, stalling a three-month expansion trend and hinting the economic rebound may not be as strong as thought, analysts said on Thursday.

For the week to Nov. 11, the commercial paper market fell $76.6 billion to $1.239 trillion outstanding from $1.315 trillion the previous week, Federal Reserve data showed.

Companies issue commercial paper to finance restocking of shelves and pay wages. As gross domestic product expanded in the third quarter, ending the long-running U.S. recession, the size of the commercial paper market grew as companies invested to meet an upturn in demand for their products.

Yet seasonal distortions in the data may have exaggerated the extent to which the market bounced back earlier, just as in the past two weeks the data may be exacerbating the depth of its relapse, analysts said.

"It's down really big again, but the interesting thing is that on a non-seasonally adjusted basis the declines were tiny: only $7 billion," said Ray Stone, economist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

A year ago, the Federal Reserve -- the U.S. central bank -- stepped in to underpin the market, which was nearly paralyzed in the wake of Lehman Brothers' September collapse.

The Fed's efforts helped to revive activity around this time last year, a factor which is likely distorting the past two weeks' data, Stone said.

However, during the market's recent growth, seasonal factors had also distorted the data, Stone said. "In the other direction, some of the expansion we saw earlier which we were hoping was macroeconomic in nature, was illusory," he said.

Unsecured financial issuance dropped by $64.7 billion after falling by $39.9 billion the previous week.

U.S. asset-backed commercial paper fell to $510.3 billion outstanding in the latest week from $515.0 billion outstanding the previous week. (Editing by James Dalgleish)

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