Labour set to hold seat in Scottish stronghold

GLASGOW (Reuters) - Britain's ruling Labour Party was expected to hold on to a parliamentary seat in one of its Scottish strongholds after voters went to the polls on Thursday in probably the last such test before a general election.

The vote in the Glasgow North East constituency, one of the most socially deprived in the country, comes after parliament speaker Michael Martin stood down earlier this year following criticism of his handling of an expenses scandal.

The scandal exposing politicians' lavish expenses claims has hurt all the main parties.

Labour, in power in Britain since 1997, has seen its ratings hit by an enduring recession and a rising death toll among British troops in Afghanistan. The center-right Conservatives are expected to win a general election due by next June.

However, the Glasgow seat has been held by Labour for 74 years and the party's candidate, Willie Bain was expected to survive a challenge from the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP).

SNP activists were playing down their chances, saying they would be pleased to run Bain close. Results are expected at about 0100 GMT on Friday.

Analysts said that the poll would give an indication of how much Labour could rely on its core support as it attempts to head off the predicted Conservative win nationally next year.

A shock Labour defeat could even prompt a final effort to unseat Prime Minister Gordon Brown. A rebellion by Labour parliamentarians petered out earlier this year and Brown, a Scot, is expected to cling on to power for the time being.

Scotland, which sends 59 MPs to the 646-seat British parliament, is a Labour heartland. Labour has 38 MPs from the Scottish constituencies and holding on to them will be vital in preventing a rout in the 2010 election.

LOCAL LOYALTIES

Labour candidate Bain, 36, is a local boy-made-good, a law lecturer who is standing for parliament for the first time.

"I'm voting for Willie Bain, he knows the community and stands by the people," said Donna Henderson, 34, a mother of three, who was carrying her shopping home in the Springburn area of the constituency.

The Glasgow North East area was once Europe's biggest train building center, but is now blighted by crime, poor educational results and the worst unemployment rate in Scotland.

Many residents live in high-rise blocks or bleak local government housing estates, while even the local pubs have metal grilles on their windows.

Speaker Martin won more than half of the vote in the 2005 general election when the main opposition parties followed convention by not standing against the speaker, parliament's highest official.

The Conservatives have only one seat in Scotland and will not pose a threat to Labour in Glasgow North East. Their recovery across the rest of Britain has not been matched north of the border where antipathy lingers following Margaret Thatcher's premiership in the 1980s.

The SNP heads a minority government in Scotland's devolved parliament after an election in 2007 and the party sharply divides opinion in Glasgow.

"I'm voting Labour, to keep the Scottish Nats out," said James McCaffery, 74, a retired builder. "I believe in the United Kingdom."