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FACTBOX: World food prices to stay high, spikes possible

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Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:07am EST

(Reuters) - Global food commodities prices are set to stay high in the medium term due to tight balance between supply and demand which can be easily rocked and trigger food price spikes similar to the 2007/08 crisis, agriculture experts say.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization is hosting a world food summit in Rome on November 16-18, hoping to raise awareness on the plight of the rising number of hungry people, who cannot afford decent meals because prices are still to high.

* Growing demand for agricultural commodities for food and energy combined with insufficient investment in productive capacity, especially in developing countries, will keep prices above pre-2006 levels at least in the medium term, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report last month.

* Average crop prices are projected to be 10-20 percent higher in real terms in 2009-2018 relative to 1997-2006, while real prices for vegetable oils were expected to rise more than 30 percent, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

* Meat and dairy prices are seen rising less than crops in 2009-2018 because they face a bigger short-term hit from the crisis due to their sensitivity to income levels, according to the report released in June.

In real terms, meat would not surpass the 1997-2006 average, while dairy commodities are expected to be slightly higher, supported by rising energy and vegetable oil prices, it said.

* International cereals prices have dropped 30 percent on average so far this season from the same period last year, but wheat and maize prices spiked in October, FAO said in its latest report on crop prospects and food situation released this month.

Wheat prices rose in October after falling for four consecutive months, driven higher by a weakening US dollar and rises in maize prices. However, wheat export prices have dropped 56 percent from their peaks in March 2008.

Maize prices rose sharply in October as bad weather hindered harvesting in the United States, but they were still 40 percent below peaks seen in June 2008.

* Following are FAO's food and major commodities price indices. The Food Price Index consists of the average of six commodity group price indices weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004.

In total 55 commodity quotations considered by FAO commodity specialists as representing the international prices of the food commodities noted are included in the overall index.

2009 2008 2007 2006

Food price index 147.9 190.9 154.1 122.4

Meat Price index 117.7 128.3 112.1 106.7

Dairy Price index 127.5 219.6 212.4 128.0

Cereals price index 174.2 237.9 166.8 121.5

Oils price index 146.8 225.4 169.1 112.0

Sugar Price index 243.9 181.6 143.0 209.6

(Reporting by Svetlana Kovalyova)

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