INSTANT VIEW: U.S. jobless claims fall in latest week
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless insurance fell for the second week in a row and the four-week moving average of claims was the lowest in nearly a year, government data showed on Thursday, pointing to improvements in the labor market.
KEY POINTS: * Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped last week to a seasonally adjusted 502,000, the lowest since January, from a revised 514,000 the prior week. * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to fall to 510,000 from an initially reported 512,000. * The four-week moving average, considered a better gauge of underlying trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, decreased to 519,750, the lowest since a matching level in the week ended November 29, 2008. * The number of those collecting long-term unemployment benefits also fell, to 5.631 million in the week ended October 31, the most recent week for which data is available, the lowest since March.
COMMENTS:
DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD, NEW YORK:
"They are encouraging numbers. They were a little softer than expected but it is on the initial and continued claims side. Seasonal adjustments are starting to help at this point and on a non-seasonally adjusted basis both series were up, but seasonal adjustments do get more favorable in the winter. Generally I think it is a sign that the labor market trends are continuing to improve and despite the slightly disappointing payrolls in October this raises hopes that the November payroll will look a little less weak."
SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES, ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA:
"It's encouraging. The trend in claims is down, though the level is still uncomfortably high. There is a fair amount of noise this time of year with seasonal adjustments."
(Payrolls data had shown) "a big jump in the unemployment rate for October, but this trend suggests you should see further moderation in the pace of job losses."
GARY THAYER, CHIEF MACROSTRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO ADVISERS, ST.
LOUIS, MISSOURI:
"It was a good number. It's been trending down since late March. It shows that companies are cutting jobs at a slower pace than during the financial crisis. Weekly counts of new jobless claims probably have to drop down to about 450,000 or fewer in order for the economy to be creating more jobs than it is losing. We're trending in the right direction, but we're probably several months away from (rising) monthly payroll numbers."
BRUCE BITTLES, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ROBERT W. BAIRD & CO, NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE:
"I wasn't surprised by the number. The weekly figures have been improving for the last five to six weeks, and last week we had the lowest four-week average since January. The larger question is, are new jobs becoming available? I don't think they are, and that's why I don't think the market will celebrate this today. I don't think we'll see new jobs opening until late 2010.
"As the economy strengthens, that might strengthen the dollar. Its been dollar weakness that's been driving the market, so you have to be careful what you wish for."
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures pare losses BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices hold steady DOLLAR: U.S. dollar extends gains versus yen
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