Canada says economic rebound likely delayed

Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:43pm EST

* Flaherty agrees economy was flat in Q3

* Bank of Canada forecast looks overly optimistic

By Louise Egan

OTTAWA, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Canada's economic turnaround will likely materialize in the fourth quarter, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Thursday, one quarter later than projected by the Bank of Canada last month.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) issued an outlook on Thursday showing the country's third-quarter gross domestic product would have a "flattish profile, with recovery coming thereafter."

"Yes, it is an assessment I agree with," Flaherty told reporters when asked if he agreed with the OECD's third-quarter forecast.

Flaherty said he was confident the economy was growing in the current quarter.

The Bank of Canada last month projected third-quarter annualized growth of 2 percent, which now looks overly optimistic.

Governor Mark Carney will give a speech in New York at 6 p.m. (1100 GMT) and markets will be watching for any comments on the shape of the recovery.

Flaherty said he has been warning that the recovery would be plodding.

"I've been saying for some time that we need to be cautious, that the economy is recovering; the economy has not recovered," he said.

The OECD said Canada's fourth-quarter growth would be 2.7 percent versus the central bank's 3.3 percent forecast. The Paris-based organization also sees the economy shrinking 1.7 percent in all of 2009 and growing 2.7 percent next year.

It urged the central bank to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.25 percent until the end of June 2010 as it has conditionally committed to do, and called for the government to resist pressures for expansionary budget measures. (Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson)

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