UPDATE 3-Dick's Sporting forecasts weak Q4 profit, shares fall

* Q3 EPS $0.16 vs est $0.09 * Revenue $989.8 mln vs est $961.5 mln * Sees Q4 EPS $0.41-$0.46 vs est $0.57

* Sees 2010 EPS exceeding 2009 EPS view of $1.04-$1.09

* Shares fall 12 pct (Recasts; adds analyst comments, updates share movement)

By Viraj Nair

BANGALORE, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (DKS.N) projected fourth-quarter earnings below market estimates on increased promotional activity in California and the shift of cold weather product sales into the third quarter, sending its shares down 12 percent.

On a conference call with analysts, the company, whose third-quarter results handily beat market expectations, said it was spending advertising dollars in southern California to get its first holiday season in the region off to a strong start.

"We don't think the spending is unreasonable, we don't necessarily think it's positive but... we hope to get some top line benefits from the advertising spend in California in 2010," Sterne, Agee & Leach analyst Sam Poser said.

He added that the sporting goods retailer is trying to take market share from rivals Sport Chalet Inc (SPCHB.O) and Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV.O) in southern California.

The earnings drag from the promotional activity is expected to be about 7 cents a share, while a shift in sales of cold weather products is expected to have a 3 cents a share impact, a company executive said. [ID:nWNAB8157]

Needham & Co analyst Sean McGowan said Dick's Sporting may see less of an impact from the shift in sales if consumers buy more this year after cutting back on spending last year.

For the fourth quarter, the sporting goods retailer projected earnings of 41 cents to 46 cents a share and a decline in same-store sales of 4 percent to 6 percent.

Analysts on average were expecting a profit of 57 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"November may have slowed down a little for them but I think these numbers are going to get knocked out of the water," Sterne Agee analyst Sam Poser said.

Piper Jaffray analyst Mitchell Kaiser said cold-weather apparel sales may be pressured as people would have already equipped themselves for winter during the chilly month of October.

"The guidance for the fourth quarter is somewhat concerning," Kaiser said, adding that Dick's Sporting was being cautious about the holiday season.

Other challenges to the quarter include tough same-store sales comparisons against strong sales of firearms and ammunition a year ago, and continued uncertain consumer sentiment, Needham analyst McGowan wrote in a note to clients.

Q3 TOPS

For the third quarter ended Oct. 31, net income rose to $18.9 million, or 16 cents a share, beating analysts' average expectation of 9 cents a share. [ID:nWNAB8010]

Sales at the company, which has posted profits that surpassed Wall Street expectations for the past five quarters, rose 7 percent to $989.8 million, topping analysts' estimates of $961.5 million.

Sales at stores open at least a year rose by 1.9 percent, spurred by sales at its namesake stores.

Shares of the Pittsburgh-based company were down 8 percent at $22.82 in Thursday afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. They touched a low of $21.75 earlier in the day. (Reporting by Viraj Nair in Bangalore; Editing by Anne Pallivathuckal)