LATAM WEEKAHEAD-Colombia, Mexico review rates amid data deluge

NEW YORK | Sun Nov 22, 2009 12:00pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 22 (Reuters) - Central bank monetary policy meetings for Colombia and Mexico will crown a week filled with key economic data in Latin America.

Both central banks are expected to remain on hold but, while there is a risk that Colombia could further cut rates due to a weak economy, Mexico is more likely to turn hawkish as recently-approved tax hikes potentially fuel inflation.

On the data front, Brazil will draw investor attention with key current account and government budget figures for October, which should suffer the impact, respectively, of a strong currency and government fiscal stimulus.

Also on the investor radar will be the meeting of Brazil's National Monetary Council on Thursday, when new measures to curb the currency appreciation might be decided.

Mexico will release its bi-weekly consumer price index for November on Tuesday, which should guide expectations for the central bank monetary policy decision and statement on Friday.

The following are some key data points investors will be watching this week:

Monday Nov. 23

* Mexico - September retail sales: market consensus is for a 3.5 percent decline following a 5.5 percent plunge in the previous period.

* Colombia - central bank monetary policy meeting

Tuesday Nov. 24

* Brazil - October current accounts: Barclays Capital forecasts a $2.8 billion deficit, following a deficit of $2.311 in the previous month.

* Mexico - November bi-weekly CPI: consensus is for a 0.18 percent rise, the same as in the previous period.

* Mexico - October unemployment rate: consensus is for a 6.2 percent rate, following a 6.41 percent reading in the previous period.

"Jobless hasn't peaked, but labor markets are stabilizing," Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Wednesday Nov. 25

* Mexico - Third-quarter current accounts: consensus is for a $2.47 billion deficit, following a $454 million surplus in the previous period.

"The current account is likely to have moved to deficit in the third quarter, in line with the trade figures," Barclays Capital said. "Meanwhile, remittances remain subdued at $5.3 billion and tourism seasonality is relatively unfavorable ."

Thursday Nov. 26

* Brazil - October unemployment rate: Barclays Capital estimates it at 7.5 percent, following a 7.7 percent rate in the previous month.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Friday said the economy will add 1.3 million payroll jobs by the end of 2009. [ID:nN20234590]

* Brazil - October primary budget: Morgan Stanley forecasts a 12 billion reais surplus, following a deficit of 5.8 billion reais in the previous month.

Friday Nov. 27

* Chile - central bank minutes

* Mexico - central bank monetary policy meeting

(Editing by Andrew Hay)

((walter.brandimarte@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223-6319; Reuters Messaging: walter.brandimarte.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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