METALS-Copper ends away from 14-mth high, China data caps

Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:16pm EST

 * Weaker dollar helps boost industrial metals
 * China Oct copper imports slide 40 pct
 * U.S. existing home sales at highest in 2-1/2 years
 (Recasts, updates with New York closing copper prices and
analyst comments, adds NEW YORK to dateline)
 By Chris Kelly and Pratima Desai
 NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Copper backed away from
14-month highs by the close on Monday, as rising inventories and
bearish import data from the world's top consumer China slowed
earlier dollar-induced buying momentum, but the red metal's price
outlook remained strong.
 "Not surprising to see a little pullback from the highs,
particularly when (Chinese) import data continues to throw the
same concern out there about demand from China moving forward,"
said David Meger, vice president and director of metals trading
with Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.
 China's refined copper imports fell 40 percent to 169,374
tonnes in October. [ID:nPEK295836]
 "The copper market certainly could be missing a key
demand-driven type component, but these markets remain strong,
driven by the weaker dollar and firm equity markets," he said.
 "The momentum technically based trade continues. The
speculative forces are certainly still present to push markets to
new highs."
 Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division ended up 2.75 cents at $3.1355 a lb,
after dealing between $3.1280 and $3.1790, a new high dating back
to late September 2008.
 On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper MCU3
closed up $160 at $6,950 a tonne.
 Earlier, the metal used in power and construction touched
$7,010 a tonne, another 14-month peak and a gain of about 125
percent since January.
 "We're not trading copper fundamentals. It's all about
sentiment," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at VTB Capital.
"We've got a tumbling greenback, which is also helping, and U.S.
home sales, which is good for sentiment," he said.
 "There's a lot of investment interest," he added.
 The dollar fell broadly after a Federal Reserve official
affirmed expectations U.S. interest rates would stay low for some
time, making industrial metals cheaper for local currency holders.
[FRX/]
 A U.S. housing report showing a jump in existing home sales in
October further spurred the market's risk appetite and dampened
the dollar's safe-haven appeal. [ID:nN23252398]
 BUYING IMPETUS
 Traders also said the end of a strike in Chile's Spence copper
mine, owned by mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) (BLT.L), was a
reason not to expect further price gains. [ID:nN23225190]
 "Physical market indicators highlighting an increased
availability of metal for prompt delivery suggest that the major
buying impetus last week came from the financial sector," Morgan
Stanley said in a note.
 Stocks of copper in LME warehouses at 424,925 tonnes are up
about 65 percent since the middle of July and the highest since
April. Aluminum stocks at above 4.59 million tonnes are holding
near a record high of 4.629 million touched on Sept. 16.
 Aluminum MAL3 ended down $22 at $2,038 a tonne. The market
is up more than 30 percent this year, partly due to financing
deals, which mean a lot of the LME stocks are tied up until next
May.
 "There appears to be ample supply of aluminum to come online.
China has demonstrated its ability to bring on capacity over the
past five years and there is substantial spare capacity both in
and outside of China," Macquarie said in a note.
 "However a strong global demand recovery could see the size of
the aluminum market rise to as big as 42 million to 45 million
tonnes by 2011/12...with potentially higher input costs...putting
a floor under aluminum prices over that time period."
 Aluminum consumption for this year is estimated at about 35
million tonnes.
 Stainless steel ingredient nickel MNI3 had a kerb close of
$16,905 a tonne from $16,600. Zinc MZN3 was at $2,272 from
$2,255, lead MPB3 at $2,410 from $2,346 and tin MSN3 was at
$15,150 from Friday's last bid at $14,950 a tonne.
 Metal Prices at 1930 GMT
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2008   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       312.75        2.25     +0.72     139.50    124.19
 LME Alum      2025.00      -35.00     -1.70    1535.00     31.92
 LME Cu        6910.00      120.00     +1.77    3060.00    125.82
 LME Lead      2387.25       41.25     +1.76     999.00    138.96
 LME Nickel   16825.00      225.00     +1.36   11700.00     43.80
 LME Tin      15175.00      315.00     +2.12   10700.00     41.82
 LME Zinc      2272.00       17.00     +0.75    1208.00     88.08
 SHFE Alu     15850.00      200.00     +1.28   11540.00     37.35
 SHFE Cu*     55020.00     1330.00     +2.48   23840.00    130.79
 SHFE Zin     18525.00      555.00     +3.09   10120.00     83.05
 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for
SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Editing by Sue Thomas
and Lisa Shumaker)
 ((pratima.desai@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 542 5113))

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