TREASURIES-Prices gain on downward revision to Q3 GDP

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Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:40am EST

* Q3 GDP revision slightly lower than expected

* Bond gains limited ahead of 5-year note auction

* Consumer confidence rises in November (Adds strategist quote, updates prices)

By Chris Reese

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices made slight gains on Tuesday after a revision to the government's data for third-quarter growth came in just below expectations and fanned doubt about the strength of the economic recovery.

Weakness in stocks also bolstered the safe-haven bid for lower risk government debt, but gains were muted before an auction of $42 billion of five-year Treasury notes.

Traders typically try to cheapen Treasuries prices ahead of such auctions.

The government revised its estimate of gross domestic product down to a rise of 2.8 percent from an initial 3.5 percent increase. The median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters was for a revision to 2.9 percent. For details, see [ID:nN24296971].

"The fact that (GDP) was revised down to 2.8 has the market better bid," said John Spinello, Treasury bond strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York, adding, however, that the market could still pull back from the gains because of the auction.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were trading 3/32 higher in price to yield 3.34 percent, down from 3.35 percent late on Monday, while two-year notes US2YT=RR were yielding 0.76 percent from a high yield of 0.80 percent in Monday's auction of the notes.

Bond trade was little impacted by data showing consumer confidence edged higher in November. The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes increased slightly to 49.5 this month from 48.7 in October. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 47.7.

"Overall, the market is doing next to nothing with the data and continues to trade better on the day, building in little concession for the supply," said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist with CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

Data on Tuesday also showed U.S. home prices rose for the fifth straight month in September, but the pace of appreciation was less than expected, according to a report from Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller.

The S&P composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.3 percent in September, below the 0.8 percent rise forecast in a Reuters poll, after a 1.2 percent gain the prior month.

Investors still have a busy day ahead, with the Treasury set to auction the five-year notes as part of a total of $118 billion of coupon sales this week. Monday's sale of $44 billion of two-year notes was met with relatively solid demand.

Also, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT).

Five-year Treasury notes US5YT=RR were trading 3/32 higher in price to yield 2.15 percent, down from 2.17 percent late on Monday, while 30-year bonds US30YT=RR were 1/32 lower to yield 4.28 percent. (Reporting by Chris Reese; Editing by Kenneth Barry) ((chris.reese@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6073; Reuters Messaging: chris.reese.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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