UPDATE 1-Mexico early-Nov inflation cools, eases rate pressure

Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:58am EST

(Rewrites throughout; adds economist's quote, falling prices)

MEXICO CITY Nov 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation rate fell to its lowest in more than a year and a half in early November, easing pressure on central bank Governor Guillermo Ortiz to raise interest rates soon.

Consumer prices rose 3.92 percent in the year through November 15, down from 4.65 percent at the end of of October, the central bank said on Tuesday.

Prices fell for tomatoes, chicken and local telephone services.

Mexico's central bank, led by Ortiz, is widely expected to raise interest rates in the first half of next year to ward off inflation caused by an imminent tax hike and a recovery from deep recession.

But inflation is now falling faster than expected because of ongoing economic weakness. Though the economy pulled out of recession in the third quarter, growing from the previous quarter, it was still 6.2 percent smaller than a year earlier.

"The central bank could postpone (a hike) until it sees that demand is really coming back," said Luis Flores, an economist at IXE in Mexico City.

The yield on the 28-day TIIE interest rate future due in July TIIN0 fell 3 basis points after the inflation data, showing that at least some investors now bet the central bank could wait longer to hike rates.

Mexican consumer prices rose a modest 0.53 percent in the first half of November MXCPIF=ECI, below the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 0.64 percent.

The closely watched core consumer price index MXCPIH=ECI, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.11 percent during the first two weeks of the month.

Headline prices had risen 0.35 percent during the first half of October, while core prices rose 0.18 percent. (Reporting by Jason Lange and Michael O'Boyle; Editing by Padraic Cassidy) ((jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +52 55 5282 7151; Reuters Messaging: jason.lange.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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