Obama expected to outline Afghan benchmarks, endgame

U.S. troops attend a ceremony in Kabul November 21, 2009.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Troop levels will be key to U.S. President Barack Obama's Afghanistan strategy roll-out next week, but he is also expected to trace the outlines of an endgame, including benchmarks for the weak Afghan government.

Obama is likely to announce at least 30,000 more troops for the war, but experts and officials say a narrow focus on resources misses the point entirely, echoing the view of the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal.

How and when Obama plans to get troops home to avoid the costly and unpopular eight-year conflict being dubbed his "endless war" will be as important as the troop numbers.

Former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, who chaired Obama's review in March of Afghanistan and Pakistan policy, said he did not see a shift from the president's strategic goal to dismantle, defeat and disrupt al Qaeda, the Taliban and its allies.

But what will be different will be his bid to explain an exit strategy -- a demand by some in his Democratic Party but seen by many Republicans as evidence the president is soft on security.

Talk of withdrawal -- even if he does not actually use that word -- is also likely to anger key ally Pakistan, which fears Washington will pull out of Afghanistan as it did in the Soviet-era, and embolden the Taliban.

"This will have to be done with a great deal of care. If the focus is already on how to get out then this could have a great impact on the Taliban and also Pakistan," said Riedel, who is with the Brookings Institution.

Part of finishing the job as Obama calls it, includes more commitment and coordination among allies fighting with U.S. forces and he is expected to ask European nations to offer up between 5,000 and 10,000 forces, Riedel said.

Another key tenet will be a demand for stepped up efforts by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose legitimacy was tarnished after a fraud-plagued August election.

"Clearly the Afghan government is key to our success -- no matter how you gauge success," said Senator Ted Kaufman.

"I think the president will address what he expects from Karzai's government," added Kaufman, saying this would probably include specific benchmarks agreed on by allies.

KARZAI KEY

The Obama administration has made clear during the three-month review process -- which Republican critics say amounted to dithering -- that Karzai must do more to tackle corruption and the illicit drug trade that have fueled the insurgency.

But Lisa Curtis, an Afghanistan expert with the conservative Heritage Foundation, said laying down too many "metrics" for the Afghan government could backfire.

"He should not tie U.S. troop commitments to particular steps by the Karzai administration. That could be very dangerous," said Curtis.

Obama's decisions come in the face of growing divisions in Congress over the war, with lawmakers picking up on public fatigue as more U.S. troops die and costs spiral during the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

Some Democrats want a withdrawal or a clear timeline for one. Obama is unlikely to oblige with specific dates.

One area of agreement is the need to speed up the training of Afghan security forces -- seen as the U.S. ticket to getting out of Afghanistan.

Karzai pledged last week that Afghans would assume complete control of security in the next five years, a promise that Obama may pick up on in his speech on Tuesday.

He is also likely to emphasize greater U.S. military efforts in key population centers, which would enable the Obama administration to offer tangible proof of success to U.S. voters in next November's mid-term congressional elections where a failing war could weigh heavily on the Democrats.

"If you get to a point next summer where you can show there is a stop to targeted attacks in key population centers, then this will probably win them more time," said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress.

"But if we are looking at the same sort of perception of a muddle and a quagmire -- that plus 10 percent unemployment in the United States -- it will be an awful mid-term election (for the Democrats)," added Katulis.

Whatever the president announces next week, experts say it will be how that strategy is implemented, rather than exact troop numbers, that counts.

"The real issue here is that the president has exactly one chance to get things right," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Everything now depends on execution of that strategy."

(Editing by Eric Beech)