ANALYSTS' VIEW-China announces carbon intensity target for 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2009 3:53am EST

BEIJING Nov 26 (Reuters) - China has unveiled its first firm target to curb greenhouse gas emissions, laying out a "carbon intensity goal" on Thursday that Premier Wen Jiabao will take to key climate talks in Copenhagen next month. [ID:nPEK421]

Following are analysts' comments on the impact of the target on the Copenhagen talks and how tough it will be to achieve.

ALLAN ZHANG, HEAD OF CARBON MARKETS IN BEIJING WITH PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS

"I would say it is a very aggressive target. Of course, they have set a target date for reducing energy consumption by 20 percent by 2020, but they failed in the first few years and I'm not sure whether they can catch up in the years to come.

"This 40-45 percent reduction (in carbon intensity) is quite big. I am sure they will have to come up with subsequent action plans to implement it."

"This will be the official position of China and it will be quite something. I am sure it will put more pressure on the U.S. side. It is definitely a significant move, but to achieve it will be quite a challenge."

DAI YANDE, DEPUTY HEAD OF THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE UNDER THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION.

"It's an arduous task for China, as everybody knows energy intensity tends to rise during industrialisation and thus it's difficult to cut down emissions."

"China is still in the period of heavy industrialisation. It has to rely on developing renewable energy sources to cut emissions, and that is still very costly."

"This move is a demonstration of China's attitude and resolve to tackle the issue."

PAN JIAHUA, CLIMATE POLICY EXPERT AT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

"I think this goal will be difficult for China to achieve. Already in the (current) Eleventh Five-year Plan we've made big efforts to cut energy intensity by 20 percent, and many of the easier steps have already been made. The next phase will be even more difficult, so I don't see that achieving this carbon intensity goal will be an easy one. It will be extremely difficult."

"Personally I think this number is a bit high for China's present capabilities ... Achieving it will require shifting more from old power plants, and also financial subsidies -- for example, for power-saving appliances, clean vehicles, and so on. Getting all done that won't be easy." (Reporting by Beijing bureau) (Editing by David Fogarty and Dean Yates) ((david.fogarty@thomsonreuters.com; +65 6403 5662; Reuters Messaging: david.fogarty.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))

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