MONEY MARKETS-Aussie swap rates ease but rate rise bets intact
* Australia rate rise seen despite soft investment data
* Aussie bond futures down after withholding tax removed
* Dollar rates at record lows tracking LIBOR, Fed minutes
By Umesh Desai
HONG KONG, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Australian swap rates eased on Thursday after the previous day's sharp jump and an unexpected drop in business investment spending, which made markets just a tad less certain the central bank will raise rates next week.
One year overnight indexed swaps AUD1YOIS= fell 4 basis points (bps) to 4.34 percent and the one year interest rate swap AUDQM3AB1Y= was up 3 bps to 4.55 percent.
That reversed Wednesday's rise stoked by comments from a top central bank official who said the economy could look forward to years of brisk growth built on booming resource investment, rapid population growth and rising household incomes.
On Thursday, data showed 3.9 percent drop in private capital expenditure for the third quarter which sent the dollar lower and prompted investors to temper somewhat their rate rise bets.
Investors are tipping a 68 percent chance CSRBA=CSAU of a 25 bps rate rise to 3.75 percent, down from Wednesday's 76 percent but higher than last week's 62 percent.
"Today's data does not mean a great deal and the RBA will look through it and hike by 25 bps next week," said Adam Carr senior economist with ICAP. "It reflects volatility and there is a lot of uncertainty in U.S. market as well," he added referring to the reason for the receiving interest in the market.
Bond futures rose after Australia's parliament passed laws removing interest withholding tax on treasury bonds as it would boost returns on those investments.
Three-year bond futures YTTc1 climbed 0.08 points to 95.20, and the 10-year contract YTCc1 added 0.11 points to 94.705.
In Singapore, 3-month dollars SIUSDD=ABSG were quoted at an average 0.26614 percent, a fresh low.
Asian rates tracked the 3-month London interbank offered rate on dollars which was fixed at 0.25563 percent USD3MFSR=, just half a basis point above the top end of the Fed's current target rate.
"The minutes of the Fed meeting may have provided the platform for this easing in dollar rates," said Suresh Ramanathan, strategist at CIMB Investment Bank.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank's November meeting showed board members considered the dollar's fall against major currencies since March "orderly", further persuading investors the U.S. currency will stay weak. [ID:nN24313828] (Editing by Tomasz Janowski) ((umesh.desai@thomsonreuters.com; +852 2843 6935; Reuters Messaging: umesh.desai.reuters.com@reuters.net; )) (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
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