SCENARIOS-Mexico's Calderon undecided if cenbank chief to stay

MEXICO CITY Nov 26 (Reuters) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon has said he has not decided whether to ask Central Bank Gov. Guillermo Ortiz to continue his job once his term wraps up at the end of the year.

Ortiz, who is in his second term as head of the central bank, found himself at odds last year with Calderon, who criticized the bank for raising interest rates as Mexico's economy was slipping toward a recession.

Here are some scenarios for possible outcomes:

* Calderon could nominate Ortiz for another six-year term, although he would need to be approved by the Senate where some in Calderon's party opposed renewing his term in 2003.

* Calderon could let Ortiz go and replace him with someone who also commands the respect of financial markets. Ortiz has stood out among emerging market central bankers for his achievements in bringing down inflation and modernizing Mexican monetary policy. If he does not offer Ortiz another term, investors may view that as compromising the bank's independence.

* Replacing Ortiz could make investors nervous about the bank's commitment to fighting inflation, and could weigh on bond prices and hurt the peso currency MXN=. Ortiz has not said, however, whether he wants to stay on at the job. Nominating a central bank chief of similar stature as held by Ortiz could make investors less uneasy about a change in command at the bank.

* Calderon could also pick a lesser known person to run the central bank. If that candidate is perceived to be politically close to Calderon, the bank's independence could be called into question.

* Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens is the person most often mentioned in financial circles as a possible successor to Ortiz. Carstens is well known abroad after being the deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund between 2003 and 2006. He also worked in senior positions in Mexico's central bank as chief economist and as the central bank chief's senior aide.

* Another person mentioned by analysts as a possible successor to Ortiz is Alonso Garcia, who currently runs a state development bank known as Banobras. Garcia previously has spent much of his career in the central bank, eventually running the bank's market operations before joining the finance ministry and rising to be a deputy finance minister under Calderon's predecessor. (Reporting by Jason Lange, editing by Maureen Bavdek) ((jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com; +52 55 5282 7153; Reuters Messaging: jason.lange.reuters.com@reuters.net))