Q+A-Where to now for Australia carbon trade laws?

Fri Nov 27, 2009 2:13am EST

CANBERRA Nov 27 (Reuters) - Australia's parliament delayed a final vote on the government's sweeping carbon trade plan on Friday, missing a key deadline and throwing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's climate change policy into doubt.

Here are some questions and answers about what will happen to the laws, which, if defeated, could trigger a snap election.

WILL THE LAWS PASS NEXT WEEK?

The upper house Senate will resume debate on the carbon-trade legislation on Monday, with the government demanding opposition politicians honour a deal to pass the laws.

But a revolt by climate sceptics within the opposition has made it difficult to predict final numbers in the Senate, where the government needs seven opposition votes to pass the laws.

Chances of the laws passing could depend on whether opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull can survive a leadership challenge, likely as early as Monday.

If leading conservative Tony Abbott or another candidate wins the leadership, the deal to pass the carbon laws could be scrapped.

But Turnbull loyalists could still support the original deal, giving the government some hope of passing the laws.

The numbers are finely balanced. All five junior opposition National Party senators will vote against the laws, and up to 15 opposition Liberal Party Senators may defy Turnbull and vote against the measure.

That leaves the government needing seven of the remaining 17 Liberal Senators to support the draft laws.

WILL THERE BE AN ELECTION?

If the laws are rejected or postponed, Rudd will have a legal right to call a snap election at any time. Opinion polls show Rudd would easily win a second term, with an enlarged majority.

Rudd is a cautious politician and has repeatedly said he does not want an early election. The next election would normally be held in late 2010.

But Rudd could call an early election in February or March to cash in on his popularity and opposition disarray. Such an election would come at the end of a forecast very hot summer and bushfires, which would likely see voters keen for action on climate change.

An election victory would then allow him to push the carbon trade laws through a special joint sitting of parliament's upper and lower houses, where he would be expected to have strong majority.

For a related story, click on [ID:nSYD290289].

For more on the carbon trade debate in Australia and New Zealand click on [ID:nCARBONAU].

For the latest Reuters Poll Trend analysis of opinion polls, click on [ID:nSYD415059]. (Editing by David Fogarty) ((james.grubel@reuters.com; +612 6273 2730; Reuters Messaging: james.grubel.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))

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