North Korea talks seen unlikely to end arms stalemate

North Korean soldiers applaud during a visit of their leader Kim Jong-il at the 1224 military unit at an undisclosed place in North Korea, in this undated picture released on November 9, 2009 by North Korea's official news agency KCNA.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's envoy for North Korea makes a rare visit to the reclusive communist state on Tuesday pursuing a mission analysts say has little chance of breaking the stalemate over Pyongyang's nuclear arms program.

Ambassador Stephen Bosworth will press North Korea to return to multi-party talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear arsenal, despite increasing signs that Pyongyang has no intention of giving up the weapons.

Since Obama took office in January promising better ties with countries that "unclenched their fists," North Korea has detonated its second underground nuclear device and test-fired a long-range rocket, calling it an attempted satellite launch.

These developments, along with North Korea's failure to follow through on commitments to denuclearize during 16 years of negotiations, have left Washington with few illusions about the visit, analysts said.

"The fact that the North has not made a strategic decision to give up their nuclear weapons is a pretty good sign that they're not interested in giving up their nuclear weapons," said Victor Cha, who was a National Security Council official in former President George W. Bush's administration and has participated in the six-party talks.

Cha, now an Asia analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there was little left the United States could offer to coax the North back to the negotiations, which also include China, Russia, South Korea and Japan.

"Every potential deal has been put out there over the past 16 years," he said. "I can't imagine he (Bosworth) has any new carrots or cards in his pocket that he can offer."

The United States and North Korea have been negotiating over nuclear issues since 1993, when Pyongyang announced its intent to pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

An initial "Agreed Framework" signed in 1994 called for the elimination of the North's nuclear facilities in exchange for incentives, but it fell apart in 2002.

A new accord negotiated under the auspices of the six-party talks was agreed in 2005, with North Korea pledging to abandon its nuclear programs and return to the NPT. [ID:nN04160260]

But that agreement broke down over verification issues at the end of the Bush administration, and North Korea vowed not to return to multi-party talks. It pressed Washington for a bilateral dialogue, which the Obama administration rejects.

A DE FACTO NUCLEAR STATE?

"The administration sees very clearly that North Korea is trying to change the venue from six party talks to bilateral talks. It's trying to change the agenda from its own denuclearization to what it calls the U.S. hostile policy. And that's a nonstarter," said Richard Bush, a Korea analyst at the Brookings Institution think tank.

North Korea would like for the United States to recognize it as a de facto nuclear power, analysts said.

"They would like to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state and then engage in some negotiations to try to get things for giving up pieces, small pieces, of their nuclear program but never really giving it all up," Cha said.

With the two sides at loggerheads over the nuclear issue, analysts predicted the best outcome for Bosworth's visit would be an agreement by the North to rejoin the six-party talks.

But Peter Beck, a specialist in Korean affairs at Stanford University, said even if North Korea announced its return to the talks, "I do not think that this will tell us if the North is serious about negotiating or not."

The probable result, analysts said, is no real movement.

"The more likely outcome is that it'll be inconclusive," Cha said. "That could mean that … the North wants more meetings, or it could mean at that point we look to the Chinese to do more to bring the North back to the talks."

In the end, the trip may be more about sending a message to China than swaying North Korea. The United States believes Beijing has the greatest leverage over Pyongyang and is better positioned to prod it back to the talks.

China, which is North Korea's main patron and a key energy supplier, is worried about destabilizing its northern neighbor and causing a flood of refugees across the border.

Those concerns are not unfounded. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had a health scare a year ago and has been grappling with issues of succession.

Some analysts say that period of weakness prompted the nuclear and missile testing as a show of power last spring. Sanctions imposed after the tests pinched the North, and last week Pyongyang angered citizens by revaluing the currency.

Concern about stability has prompted China to resist further pressure on North Korea, pushing instead for Washington to show flexibility with a bilateral meeting. Doing so would let Washington demonstrate it is not obstructing the talks.

"One of the strongest tactical arguments for sending Bosworth is it's a great way to try to … put more pressure on the Chinese," Cha said. "If … it proves to be inconclusive, then you can go back to the Chinese and say, 'We did what you said, now use your leverage to get them back to the table.'"

(Additional reporting by Jon Herskovitz, editing by Vicki Allen)