INSTANT VIEW - U.S. non-farm payrolls fall by 11,000 in November

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NEW YORK | Fri Dec 4, 2009 9:21am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut a far fewer-than-expected 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007, government data showed on Friday, strongly suggesting the deterioration in the labor market was in its final stages.

KEY POINTS: * The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from a 26-1/2 year high of 10.2 percent in October. * The government revised job losses for September and October to show 159,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported. * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 130,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 10.2 percent. * Since December 2007, when the economy slipped into recession, 7.2 million jobs have been lost, the Labor Department said. * November's data was the strongest since December 2007, when jobs increased by 120,000.

COMMENTS:

JOHN SILVIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, WELLS FARGO SECURITIES,

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA:

"What this shows is that the recovery is here. The economy continues to improve and the increase in temporary help is a decent leading indicator. Declines were also smaller for many different sectors. But, we have to be careful here and keep in mind what happened on a year over year basis. The last month a year ago was most heavily weighted and may be a big negative next month. The number was very much a surprise. The aggregate hours index was up and that was important."

PETER KENNY, MANAGING DIRECTOR KNIGHT EQUITY MARKETS, JERSEY

CITY, NEW JERSEY:

"Yesterday we saw a sell-off that really steepened as we got into the close as a result of the comments that were coming out of the White House that suggested that we may see an uptick in the unemployment numbers this morning.

"So this morning when we see an actual drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2 percent to 10 percent, the market had not priced that in. It had priced in just the opposite, a rise in the rate."

JASON SCHENKER, PRESIDENT, PRESTIGE ECONOMICS, LLC, AUSTIN,

TEXAS:

"Today's U.S. employment report for the month of November was surprisingly good, but we believe it is a blip, and that the unemployment rate will rise further. The job market has not recovered. The better-than-expected employment report was a surprise to the entire marketplace, but the job market has not recovered, and is likely to continue losing jobs in coming months.

"We have been forecasting an average unemployment rate for Q4 of this year of 10 percent. We stand by that forecast, and expect a further rise in the unemployment rate next year, with an average rate between 10.5 and 11 percent nationally. Even though today's report was better-than-expected, and broad swaths of the general populace have become armchair athletes to the sport of economic growth, it will not prevent the fact that the job market is likely to erode further. The worst is not behind us - at least not for the job market. The unemployment rate is poised to rise further."

WILLIAM SULLIVAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, JVB FINANCIAL GROUP, BOCA

RATON, FLORIDA:

"The report was much, much better than expected. It confirmed the bullish pace we've seen unfolding in the equity market in recent months. The data point to a transition in the economy from a deep recession to a modest recovery.

"This will encourage the Fed to be more vocal about an exit strategy from their highly accommodative posture."

PETER BOOCKVAR, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MILLER TABAK, NEW YORK:

"The November payrolls fell only 11,000, much better than expectations of a fall of 125,000... the data is a clear positive but doesn't square with other info but let's enjoy it for today. The stock market reaction today will be interesting because the US dollar is rallying and the 10 year bond yield is nearing 3.5 percent again."

CHRIS RUPKEY, CHIEF FINANCIAL ECONOMIST, BANK OF

TOKYO/MITSUBISHI UFJ, NEW YORK:

"Treasury market yields are soaring right now because if the economy is going to see sustainable growth, the day is nearing when the Fed will have to make good on its plans for an exit strategy.

"We're almost back to normal, 11,000 jobs away from creating jobs. Those looking for gloom and doom forecasts for the economy will be disappointed. The economy is lifting at a much greater rate than expected.

"The labor market recovery is looking distinctly V-shaped. It's ironic that the Obama administration is sponsoring a jobs fair because right now it looks like the economy doesn't need any more help. The unemployment rate is down to 10.0 percent so it's not just seasonal factors affecting the number of job losses. You can also see it in the weekly initial jobless claims which are falling. It shows you we're probably one month away from creating jobs."

WILLIAM LARKIN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, CABOT MONEY MANAGEMENT IN

BOSTON:

"This is good news. The one thing I would focus on immediately is that unemployment right now is a retail investor's focus. From a retail standpoint for the consumer the timing is very important. People don't want to be hearing that pain is still spreading. Now we are at a 10 percent jobless rate down from 10.2 percent.

"The institutional investor is basically focusing on average weekly hours, which went up slightly. That's a first positive sign for the labor market.

"Treasuries have seen a pretty good sell off. The initial reaction is negative."

BURT WHITE, MANAGING DIRECTOR, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, LPL

FINANCIAL. BOSTON:

"My view here is that the markets have been split in a nervousness lately, concerned about both the anchor and the brake. Both can slow down the economy, the brake has been the Fed and the anchor has been unemployment.

"Today's employment numbers continue to alleviate nervousness over the anchor. We are not dragging this anchor anymore. We have been moving toward creating jobs here and we thought jobs would be created sometime in January and we are a month early. This is a great number and I expect the market to reward it handsomely."

TOM SOWANICK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, THE OMNIVEST GROUP,

PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY:

"These numbers are almost too good to be true. Having said that, they are consistent with the weekly decline in initial unemployment claims. There's a 193,000 net improvement in jobs for the month. Average weekly hours worked also up which is good for consumption spending. These are eye-popping numbers."

JOSEPH TREVISANI, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, FX SOLUTIONS, SADDLE

RIVER, NEW JERSEY:

"The markets are not doing that much. The dollar will probably weaken on this over time because it gives a much better picture of the U.S. economy."

MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures extend gains after better-than-expected jobs report. BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices fall sharply. DOLLAR: U.S. dollar extends gains versus yen.

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