UPDATE 2-Sberbank sees 2010 net profit at $3.3 bln or more

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Tue Dec 8, 2009 12:50pm EST

* Expects 2009 net profit at around 15 bln roubles

* Plans 2010 net profit of at least 100 bln roubles

* Provisions may peak at 12-14 percent in 2010

* Comfortable with cost-to-income in low-forties in 2010

(Adds CFO quotes, details)

MOSCOW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Sberbank SBER03.MM, Russia's biggest lender, plans to get back to pre-crisis levels of net profit as provision charges begin to fade, the bank's chief financial officer said on Tuesday.

The state run bank sees provisions peaking at 12-14 percent next year up from the 10-10.5 percent level expected at the end of 2009, but it nevertheless provided guidance for a full-year net profit of at least 100 billion roubles ($3.3 billion) in 2010.

"Given that we are pretty modest on the nominal growth of the loan book forecast, the provisions to portfolio may well peak out at 12-14 percent, maybe closer to 12 percent than 14 percent before they start recovering," Chief Financial Officer Anton Karamzin told analysts during a conference call.

Management hopes the volume of newly created provisions will be less then the provisions Sberbank releases, beginning from the second part of 2010.

Sberbank reiterated its previous forecast that provisions may grow up to 10.0-10.5 percent by the year-end from 8.9 percent as of Sept.30.

"We have set quite aggressive aims in the business plan for the next year ... Net profit will be no less than 100 billion roubles at Russian accounting standards (RAS), that is for sure," Anton Karamzin told a conference call, adding it was a "relatively conservative outlook".

Sberbank will also stick with an already announced cost-cutting programme, but does not exclude that the cost-to-income ratio may rise from 34.2 percent as of Sept. 30.

"For the cost to income ratio we are comfortable with a low-forties figure next year," Karamzin said.

Sberbank earned 110 billion roubles in 2008 and expects to match this result as provision charges are expected to return to the previous year's level.

"If we were creating provisions this year at the same pace as in 2008, the bank would show a 30-40 percent rise in net profit year-on-year," Karamzin said.

Sberbank posted a net profit of 4.2 billion roubles in January-September and assured investors it would stay in the black this year, while its closet peer, state-run VTB (VTBR.MM) will likely show a net loss. [ID:nGEE5B60AT]

Sberbank's signal that bad loans growth is slowing echoed comments by Raiffeisen Zentralbank [RZB.UL], emerging Europe's second-largest lender, that bad debt charges are down from peaks [ID:nGEE5AP217]

Analysts said easing provisions could pave the way for Sberbank to show a stronger performance in coming months.

"The net profit will be between 10 and 20 billion roubles in 2009 at Russian accounting standards. I am a conservative banker and hope it will be somewhere in the middle of this range at around 15 billion roubles," Karamzin said. ($1=30.5914 roubles) (Reporting by Dmitry Sergeyev; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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