FACTBOX: Stimulus exit plans for Asia-Pacific's big 5 economies
(Reuters) - Japan's ruling coalition agreed on Tuesday to a stimulus package worth $80.6 billion, aiming to prevent the economy from tipping back into recession as deflation drags on growth and a strong yen undermines exports.
Fast-paced growth has seen Asian economies outpace their global counterparts in recent months, raising the prospect that more than a trillion dollars of emergency stimulus to fight the financial crisis may be lifted.
Here is a snapshot of the size, effects, and status of stimulus plans in the Asia Pacific's five largest economies.
JAPAN
STIMULUS: The previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party earmarked a total of nearly $287 billion (26.7 trillion yen). A new package announced December 8 of 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) -- which amounts to about 1.5 percent of GDP -- will not involve large-scale new debt issuance, the government says. Given that the new government plans to reallocate some of the previous spending, the total will amount to around 31 trillion yen or about 6 percent of Japan's gross domestic product.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY: Japan made a fragile recovery from its worst recession in World War Two in the second quarter and maintained growth in the third quarter. But some government policymakers are concerned that the economy could slip back into a downturn next year unless action is taken.
EXIT PLAN: Weak domestic demand and a gloomy corporate outlook meant the government could not yet consider an exit policy from its stimulus, Parliamentary Finance Secretary Shinichiro Furumoto said on November 12.
However, the Bank of Japan is reining in its policies. It said on October 30 it would stop buying corporate bonds and commercial paper at the end of 2009, but it extended low-interest loans to support corporate funding by three months to March. It has pledged to keep rates near zero as long as needed.
CHINA
STIMULUS: Beijing unveiled Asia's largest stimulus, about 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion), in November 2008, to boost domestic demand through 2010, and complemented it with a record lending spree by the country's mainly state-owned banks.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY: Growth accelerated to hit 8.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, all but ensuring the government will hit its target of 8 percent overall for 2009.
EXIT PLAN: The massive $585 billion stimulus will be disbursed this year and next. Three-year programs aimed at sectors such as textiles and affordable housing are due to wrap up by 2011.
On December 7, China pledged to stick to its monetary and fiscal stimulus, saying recovery was not on a solid footing. It says stimulus spending will create at least 24 million jobs, offering its rosiest employment outlook since the financial crisis struck.
The yuan, which Beijing has effectively repegged to the dollar since July 2008 to aid exporters, remains an issue. Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on October 30 that currency reforms would continue, but economists doubt the yuan will climb again until well into next year.
INDIA
STIMULUS: $4 billion worth in two packages, 0.4 percent of GDP, rolled out since October 2008 to revive domestic demand, rural/urban infrastructure and the export sector.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY: Growth in Asia's third-largest economy slowed to 6.7 percent in 2008/09 from rates of 9 percent or more in the previous three years. The OECD has forecast growth of 7 percent in 2010 and 7.5 percent in 2011.
EXIT PLAN: In early November, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the government would take appropriate action next year to wind down stimulus.
Strong industry data from September fueled more debate over when the stimulus should be pulled back. On Nov 20, the junior finance minister said the government had not yet chalked out a roadmap to withdraw stimulus in the first half of 2010.
AUSTRALIA
STIMULUS: A$52 billion ($37 billion)-plus in two packages since September 2008, the latest of which at A$42 billion is worth about 2 percent of GDP this year and 1.3 percent next year.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY: Australia's economy grew by 0.6 percent in the second quarter, after suffering only one quarter of contraction during the downturn.
On October 6, the central bank became the first in the G20 to raise interest rates since the crisis, saying the worst for the economy had passed. It has since raised rates another two times and forecast a solid period of growth for the economy.
EXIT PLAN: The timeframe is 2009-10 for the latest A$42 billion package. In September, Treasurer Wayne Swan said economic stimulus would be gradually withdrawn from the last three months of this year on through to 2011. But he warned against an early exit.
SOUTH KOREA
STIMULUS: 69 trillion won ($51.2 billion), about 7.5 percent of GDP. The government says the package's tax breaks and environment-friendly investments could create more than 1.5 million jobs over several years. South Korea and China have committed the highest percentages of stimulus money to environmental projects, the UNEP says.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY: The economy grew at its fastest rate in more than seven years in the third quarter although this was mainly driven by inventory adjustment.
EXIT PLAN: None in sight. Stimulus timeframe is up to and including 2012. On September 24, Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun said it was too early to discuss the timing of an exit strategy.
Pressed on likely exit logistics, he said credit guarantees and rolling over loans for small and medium enterprises may be the first to be withdrawn to restore "market discipline.
Source: Reuters
(Reporting by Reuters bureau, Compiled by Gillian Murdoch, Editing by Neil Fullick)
- Tweet this
- Link this
- Share this
- Digg this
- Reprints



Follow Reuters