CORRECTED - BUY OR SELL-Will MGM Mirage's gamble on CityCenter pay off?

(Corrects paragraph 6 to Treasure Island instead of Mirage)

* Aria casino-hotel to open before midnight Wednesday

* Winter rates $159/night plus resort credit

By Deena Beasley

LAS VEGAS, Dec 15 (Reuters) - MGM Mirage (MGM.N) has bet big on the $8.5 billion CityCenter complex on the Las Vegas Strip, where the flagship casino-hotel will open this week, but skeptics say it could be tough to get recession-battered consumers to pay up for the new resort.

Most of the six-tower project, a joint venture with the now well-known Dubai World, opened earlier this month. The centerpiece 4,004-room Aria will open to the public just before midnight on Wednesday.

Shares of MGM, which have fallen about 22 percent year-to-date, rose 6 percent on Monday and were down 0.6 percent at mid-day on Tuesday.

"The market is breathing a sigh of relief about CityCenter opening," said Gabelli & Co analyst Amit Kapoor. "I think (MGM) management is very competent. If they can manage nine Strip properties, why can't they manage yet another one?"

MGM, which operates Las Vegas resorts ranging from the CityCenter-adjacent Bellagio to Circus Circus, generates about 85 percent of its revenue from the Sin City gambling corridor.

The highly leveraged company teetered near default earlier this year but was able to pull out of a downward spiral by selling assets like Treasure Island in Las Vegas, issuing new debt and securing financing for CityCenter.

"The good thing for the stock is that expectations are reasonably low," said Sterne Agee analyst David Bain.

MGM, along with other Las Vegas casino operators, has been able to weather the recession through a combination of discounted hotel room rates and financial incentives for gamblers and other guests.

The number of visitors to Las Vegas rose 4 percent in October from a year earlier -- an 8 percent-plus drop in convention visits was more than offset by a 5.5 percent increase in tourists, according to the city's convention bureau.

Las Vegas Strip gambling revenue fell about 10 percent in October from the same month last year, while average daily room rate fell 14 percent -- better than the 19 percent drop seen in September and the average 2009 decline of 24 percent.

But CityCenter's nearly 6,000 high-end hotel rooms will add considerable capacity to the Strip's existing 25,000 or so luxury rooms -- found at properties run by companies like Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.O) and Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N) as well as MGM.

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"I think CityCenter is going to be a challenge for MGM and the market," said Majestic Research analyst Matt Jacob. "It could be quite a while before we see those premium (hotel) rates that were a big driver of Las Vegas growth earlier this decade."

For a two-night stay through March, Aria rates are available at $159 per night, including a $75 resort credit.

A night across the street at the MGM Grand is going for $51, including free wireless Internet, spa and nightclub access.

Some analysts question whether CityCenter's high rises -- with their "city within a city" theme -- will attract enough new visitors to the Strip.

Buildings at the glittering 67-acre (27-hectare) site were designed by world-renowned architects like Daniel Libeskind and Cesar Pelli. Pedestrian-friendly features include outdoor sculptures, shade trees and innovative water features.

"It's a high-end, modern, minimalist design," said Sterne Agee's Bain. "I think that will play to a certain demographic, but I don't think it will play to everyone."

MGM and Dubai World, an investment company for the Persian Gulf emirate, are banking on attracting visitors willing and able to pay for state-of-the-art hotel rooms along with extras like spa services, meals at celebrity-chef restaurants and shopping sprees at Tiffany and Gucci.

Dubai World rocked global markets on Nov. 25 when it asked creditors for a standstill on $26 billion of debt mainly linked to its two property companies, Nakheel and Limitless World. MGM said Dubai World's woes will not affect CityCenter, for which funding is already in the bank.

The partners recently slashed CityCenter condominium prices by 30 percent after buyers balked at closing deals signed at the height of the housing bubble.

Several other projects along the Strip remain stalled, including the high-end Fontainebleau Las Vegas, which was forced into bankruptcy this summer.

Financier Carl Icahn recently beat casino and racetrack operator Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN.O) with a $156.5 million floor bid for a January auction of the unfinished Fontainebleau, on which $2 billion has already been spent.

Bill Clifford, chief financial officer, at Penn National has said it will take at least another $1.5 billion to finish the 3,800-room resort.

"What is the land value in the Las Vegas Strip?" Clifford asked at a recent investment forum broadcast on the company's website. "You could probably get a better return off of it with a car dealership than you can with a hotel casino resort."