Q+A: Pakistan amnesty ruling raises political temperature

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's top court ruled on Wednesday against an amnesty decree that protected President Asif Ali Zardari and some aides from graft charges, further damaging a deeply unpopular leader seen as pro-American.

Here are some questions and answers on the political implications of the ruling in Pakistan and the region.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ZARDARI?

Zardari is safe from prosecution because of presidential immunity. But legal experts say his legitimacy for the presidency could be challenged by those who see his 2008 election as president as invalid.

These issues are bound to take a great deal of time to resolve and give him room to try to make political alliances.

No matter what the outcome, the rejection of the amnesty decree issued by former president Pervez Musharraf in 2007 will further weaken Zardari, whose image has long been tarnished by allegedly shady deals in the 1990s. He also faced murder charges. Zardari was never convicted and denied wrongdoing but spent 11 years in jail. Now he is deeply unpopular and his government is perceived as weak in the face of a Taliban insurgency and a struggling economy.

Zardari is aware of his precarious position. He has taken steps to try and pacify opponents who want him to relinquish some of his powers inherited from Musharraf, who became increasingly autocratic before resigning. They include the right to dismiss governments and appoint chiefs of the armed forces.

In November, Zardari handed over authority over Pakistan's nuclear command structure to the prime minister. The move did not change policy because Pakistan's powerful military is firmly in control of the nuclear weapons. But it suggested Zardari realized he had no choice but to appease critics.

WHAT IS THE BIG PICTURE?

The court ruling has far wider implications than threatening Zardari's bumpy political career. Political turmoil in Pakistan makes Washington nervous. President Barack Obama is banking on Pakistan to help him stabiles Afghanistan where a Taliban insurgency has dragged on for eight years.

There is less chance of that happening if Pakistan is unstable. Zardari's interior and defense ministers are among those on a list of 8,000 politicians and bureaucrats that would have been protected under the amnesty. Now they may be casualties if they end up in court.

Zardari's downfall would not mean his party loses power - it could put up a new candidate for president. His main rival, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, hopes to win the next parliamentary election, due by 2013, although turmoil might present him with a chance to force early polls.

Widely respected army chief General Ashfaq Kayani has won the respect of Washington. He could be a useful ally, as long as the Americans don't try to push their weight around too much with an army that doesn't take kindly to outside pressure.

Kayani is seen as a professional soldier who has vowed to keep the army out of politics in a country ruled by the military for more than half of its 62-year history. But like other military leaders, he has made it clear that the United States -- whose drone aircraft are hitting suspected militant hideouts on Pakistani soil and causing resentment -- will not dictate his army's military policies.

The United States wants Pakistan to root out Taliban and al Qaeda militants crossing the border to attack Western forces in Afghanistan. But Pakistan sees the Afghan Taliban as leverage against Indian influence in its western neighbor. The bottom line is the military, which has been described as a state within a state, is in charge, and is used to making decisions on its own.

HOW WILL THE TALIBAN REACT?

The militants can be expected to capitalize on political uncertainty and step up bomb attacks. The Taliban are becoming more ambitious, with brazen operations like a recent suicide attack at a mosque near Pakistan's military headquarters, challenging the belief that the army is invincible. Political turmoil would fit in with their plans to spread chaos and fear. (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: here) (Editing by Robert Birsel)