Former CFO says GModelo may lose arbitration vs AB

MEXICO CITY Dec 17 (Reuters) - A former finance chief for Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo said on Thursday the company may lose a $2.5 billion arbitration against partner Anheuser-Bush.

Grupo Modelo (GMODELOC.MX), which makes the popular Corona beer, started proceedings against Anheuser-Busch in October 2008 following the U.S. company's acquisition by Inbev NV, which created Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BR), the world's largest brewer.

"My personal opinion regarding the arbitration is that AB will win," said former Modelo Chief Financial Officer Ernesto Alcalde y Rodriguez during a beverage sector call sponsored by a brokerage.

He retired from the company in October 2007.

Modelo was 50 percent-owned by Anheuser-Busch and the Mexican brewer claims the U.S. company was required to consult with it about the takeover. Modelo is asking for $2.5 billion in the New York-based arbitration case, saying Anheuser-Busch failed to consult with it.

"According to the investment agreement between AB and Modelo that (claim) is not true, literally speaking," Alcalde y Rodriguez said.

"The agreement says only that AB and Modelo shareholders cannot sell Modelo shares to a competitor in the beer business in Mexico or the U.S. I don't know the reasons, but they forgot to put in the investment agreement of 1993 a clause regarding a change in control in AB."

Anheuser-Busch InBev has said the claims are without merit because there is no change of control clause in the 1993 Modelo investment agreement and no sale, or transfer, of the shares of Grupo Modelo held by Anheuser-Busch International Holdings took place when the InBev deal occurred.

The three-person arbitration panel was expected to meet in the first half of December to try to end the dispute, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters earlier this month.

A Modelo spokeswoman said on Thursday the arbitration was ongoing, but declined to comment on the terms of the investment agreement.

"As far as I know (the arbitration) has not ended," she said.

Alcalde y Rodriguez said Modelo's controlling shareholders would be willing to sell the company at an adequate price and that they would prefer to be paid in cash rather than stock. (Reporting by Cyntia Barrera Diaz; editing by Andre Grenon)