SNAP ANALYSIS: Violence may spike after Mexican capo's death

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The killing of drug cartel leader Arturo Beltran Leyva is a coup for the Mexican government that is under pressure to show results from its military-backed war on drug gangs.

But the power vacuum resulting from the capo's death is likely to trigger a spike in violence as ambitious henchmen seek to replace him and rival gangs try to take over his turf.

TURMOIL AND A BOOST FOR CALDERON

- After Beltran Leyva's death in a firefight with elite navy troops in a city near the capital on Wednesday night, the cartel that carries his family name could be thrown into turmoil as it seeks to regroup under new leadership.

- Other cartels, notably the Arellano Felix cartel in the border city of Tijuana across from San Diego, have lost power and influence after the deaths and arrest of kingpins. "It is hard to replace that kind of senior leadership ... there could be internal strife," said Scott Stewart, an analyst at security consultancy Stratfor.

- Beltran Leyva's death should help President Felipe Calderon quieten criticism of his three-year crackdown on drug gangs, which has provoked a surge in drug murders. The respite may be brief if killings continue to escalate, however.

REVENGE STRIKES LIKELY

- The Beltran Leyva cartel has responded violently to past assaults on its leadership. The arrest of Arturo's brother Alfredo by Mexican police in 2008 touched off a firestorm of violence as the gang attacked the government and rivals.

- The gang killed the son of Mexico's most wanted drug baron Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman, an ally-turned-foe, after blaming him for tipping off police to Alfredo's whereabouts.

- That murder intensified the violent struggle for smuggling routes across northern Mexico in a war that has transformed the border city of Ciudad Juarez across from El Paso, Texas, into one of the world's murder capitals.

RIVALS TO STRIKE, ARMY STRETCHED

- Guzman's Sinaloa cartel, the most powerful in Mexico, is likely to take advantage of Beltran Leyva's death and send its enforcers into the central and southern states where the Beltran Leyvas dominated.

- That could further stretch Mexico's military, which is already struggling to contain widespread drug violence.

- The arrest of Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas in 2003 provoked a swell of violence in cities just south of Texas when Guzman unsuccessfully tried to move into his territory.

- The Gulf cartel itself will be keen to muscle in on Beltran Leyva turf in the wealthy industrial city of Monterrey, where the two groups agreed an uneasy peace to use the area for money laundering and as a smuggling base.

(Reporting by Robert Campbell; Editing by Robin Emmott)