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Q+A: Fallout from murder of Colombian governor
BOGOTA |
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia has blamed FARC rebels for the kidnapping and murder of a provincial governor this week in one of the worst guerrilla strikes during President Alvaro Uribe's seven years in government.
The murder of Luis Cuellar was widely condemned by the international community, but it has also underscored the tough task Uribe faces to crush Latin America's oldest surviving leftist insurgency.
The FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, is the country's largest rebel force with around 9,000 fighters. It has not issued a statement on Cuellar's kidnapping or murder.
WHAT DOES THE ASSAULT ON CUELLAR MEAN FOR THE FARC?
It appears to demonstrate the FARC is still capable of carrying out operations against top targets despite Uribe's U.S.-backed armed offensive. With elections ahead in 2010, the guerrillas are expected to try to show Uribe has failed in his promise to wipe out their insurgency. They may use current hostages as leverage and abduct others while carrying out more attacks on the armed forces, possibly in urban areas.
Widely despised by Colombians for kidnapping, extortion and drug trafficking and lacking political traction, the FARC is unlikely to be affected by condemnation at home or abroad. They have brushed off similar criticism before, such as in 2007 when authorities blamed the rebels for killing 11 kidnap victims. Cuellar's murder, however, is likely to harden Uribe's position and increase military pressure to hunt down FARC bosses.
HOW WILL URIBE'S POPULARITY BE AFFECTED?
Uribe remains popular for his tough stance on the FARC. Many Colombians praise him for bringing the nation away from the worst days of the decades-long conflict when kidnappings and bombings were common. But families of FARC kidnap victims are criticizing him for ordering military rescues of captives and renewing his hardline stance on negotiations with the guerrilla group. Critics may view his position on security as weakened. But with allies pushing him to seek reelection, Uribe may gain political capital by toughening his position against the FARC. He has not said he will run again and a court must approve a constitutional reform to allow another term. But past successes against rebels have bolstered his popularity.
WILL THE MURDER CAUSE A SHIFT IN COLOMBIA'S CONFLICT?
It is unlikely to become a catalyst for a change in direction in Colombia's war. The FARC is splintered and weakened, but it is entrenched in some parts of the country and aided by its ability to slip over borders with Ecuador and Venezuela. Colombia has signed a deal to allow U.S. troops more access to its bases to extend cooperation against rebels and drug traffickers. Authorities say they constantly review security policies as FARC adapts to the army's methods. But the kidnapping has opened debate on how those policies may need to be overhauled to meet new challenges.
WHAT HAPPENS TO OTHER KIDNAP VICTIMS?
The FARC had raised hope of more unilateral releases of hostages in the coming weeks. Two soldiers - one held for more than a decade in FARC jungle camps -- were set to be released in a handover with the Red Cross and the Catholic Church. Further releases are unlikely for now, as Uribe has ordered troops to hunt down and rescue 24 police and soldiers in FARC hands and his government argues that the FARC does not want to begin serious talks over a broad hostage deal or peace deal.
(Reporting by Patrick Markey in Bogota; Editing by Paul Simao)
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