Q+A: Iran enters new phase after Ashura bloodshed

(Reuters) - Six months after a disputed presidential election, Iran's hardline leadership is still struggling to end anti-government protests.

Opposition rallies are not subsiding. On the contrary, political turmoil has entered a new phase, with senior clerics and authorities calling for "severe" punishment of the opposition leaders.

Following are questions and answers on the ruling establishment's strategy:

IS IRAN FACING A SECOND REVOLUTION?

Iran's clerical establishment has never faced such questions about its legitimacy in the 30-year history of the Islamic Republic. The disputed June 12 election which gave President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term has damaged the reputation of the leadership, inside the country and abroad.

Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi has roots in the clerical establishment and has repeatedly said he believes in the values of the late father of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Therefore, he is unlikely to take any measures which would endanger or overthrow the Islamic system, in which he was a prime minister during the eight-year Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Even if some opposition supporters in Iran wanted a revolution, most of them prefer political evolution inside the system.

HOW HAVE THINGS CHANGED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS?

Since the killing of eight people on the Shi'ite Muslim religious ritual of Ashura on Sunday, the political turmoil has entered a new phase. The establishment, which had tolerated sporadic clashes and anti-government rallies since the vote, has intensified a crackdown on the reform movement aimed at halting its street protests and activities.

Senior clerics have sent serious signals about the possibility of arresting the opposition leaders, which would raise the stakes in the crisis.

Political analysts say if hardline rulers conclude that by arresting senior opposition leaders they will be able to eventually end the unrest, then they will carry this out.

"But if they think it will only escalate the tension, they will just arrest people around the opposition leaders," said Mahjoob Zweiri, Iran analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies at Jordan University.

Since the clashes on Ashura on December 27, at least 20 leading moderates including three senior advisers to Mousavi have been arrested.

CAN THE ESTABLISHMENT QUELL THE UNREST?

The Revolutionary Guards, which quelled the unrest after the June election, are united and seem decided they can curtail the reform movement's protests. But some conservatives, even those who supported Ahmadinejad's presidency, are critical of the government's domestic, economic and foreign policies.

The splits, which surfaced after the disputed June vote and its aftermath, will make it harder for the establishment to agree on how to end the turmoil. Some senior clerics have also sided with the opposition, criticizing the government's handling of the post-election protests.

The vote and its aftermath have further strained Iran's relations with the West, which accuses Tehran of covertly trying to build nuclear bombs. Iran denies the claim. Western leaders have criticized Iranian rulers for suppressing the opposition.

WHAT CAN BE DONE BY THE ESTABLISHMENT TO DEFUSE TENSION?

The establishment is unlikely to show weakness by unseating the president, particularly after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei showed strong support for Ahmadinejad's re-election. Such a move would weaken Khamenei's position in the country.

The government has urged people to participate in state-organized rallies nationwide to display their support for the establishment.

Tens of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets since Ashura, calling for "fierce" punishment of the opposition leaders. Some hardline clerics have branded Mousavi as a "mohareb" (enemy of God). Under Iran's Islamic Sharia law, punishment for "mohareb" is execution.

So far Mousavi has been quiet over the killings on Ashura, including the death of his nephew. But analysts say it is unlikely that he will abandon his political aims because of mounting pressure from the hardliners.

The state-organised rallies and arrests of activists, journalists and leading reformers are unlikely to end the protests by opposition supporters, who feel humiliated because they think the election was rigged and "their votes were stolen" by the establishment, the analysts said.

Authorities have denied any vote-rigging.