IMM specs cut long bets on U.S. dollar-CFTC

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Fri Jan 8, 2010 3:57pm EST

 NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Speculators cut bets the U.S.
currency has further to rise but were still long the dollar for
a third straight week, according to Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data released on Monday.
 The value of the dollar's net long position was around
$4.25 billion in the week ending January 5, down from the net
long position of $4.76 billion in the prior week, according to
Reuters calculations.
 The December 22 data marked the first time since early May
that speculators took a long position on the dollar, which is a
bet that the currency will rise in value. It also ended 32
straight weeks of short dollar positions, according to CFTC
data and Reuters calculations.
 The shift came in a month that saw the dollar rally sharply
against major currencies after spending most of 2009 under
steady pressure. In the week ended December 1, 2009, the value
of speculators' net short position rose to almost $22 billion,
according to Reuters calculations.
 The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from the net positions of International
Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound,
Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.
 In the latest week, speculators increased their bets
against the yen, sterling, euro. They reduced bets against the
Swiss franc but the overall trend was still to be short the
Swiss currency.
 Speculators increased their long positions on the Canadian
and Australian dollars. The net Canadian dollar long position
was the highest since the period ended October, 20, 2009.
 It was the largest short position on the yen since the
period ending August 26, 2008 and on the euro since September
16, 2008.
 Open interest in yen positions rose 9,014 contracts to
104,231 contracts. Euro open interest jumped 12,003 contracts
to 156,155 contracts.
 Open interest on the Swiss franc fell 2,872 contracts to
35,161 contracts.  
 Open interest is taken as a sign of the strength in a given
price movement, though not an indication of direction.
Increasing open interest is said by analysts to illustrate
strength behind the price movement, while a drop shows
weakening price movement.
 A rise in open interest also indicates that the security is
being actively traded, while a decline would show less
activity.
 JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          20,634               19,943
Short         37,445               34,846
Net          -16,811              -14,903
 EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          37,229               34,132
Short         73,017               67,929
Net          -35,788              -33,797
 POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          18,031               18,480
Short         51,595               47,955
Net          -33,564              -29,475
 SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          12,488               10,334
Short         15,268               17,385
Net           -2,780               -7,051
 CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          51,736               50,457
Short         11,540               10,468
Net           40,196               39,989
 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          62,114               53,603
Short         15,006               17,072
Net           47,108               36,531
 MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          69,341               70,392
Short          7,354                5,759
Net           61,987               64,633
 NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand
dollars)
          1/05/10 week         12/29/09 week
Long          18,106               13,872
Short          5,133                5,067
Net           12,973                8,805
 (Reporting by Nick Olivari)


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