Q+A: What lies ahead for turbulent Thailand?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra rallied on Monday outside the rural home of a top royal adviser they accuse of involvement in the 2006 coup that toppled the billionaire.

The demonstration, over Privy Council member Surayud Chulanont's alleged illegal occupation of forest land, comes ahead of a big push by protesters and parliamentarians allied with Thaksin to bring down Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's year-old coalition government.

Here are a few questions about how the crisis might play out.

WHY NOW?

Analysts say Thaksin wants to keep up the momentum and unseat the coalition government while its members are at odds with each other and its popularity remains low. A parliamentary censure debate and a big rally are planned for late January and early February as a show of strength for the pro-Thaksin movement.

Just as important, perhaps, a court verdict is due on whether to confiscate $2.3 billion of the Shinawatra family's assets, which prosecutors say is "unusual wealth" accrued while he was in office. Thaksin might feel he stands a better chance of getting back his fortune under a more sympathetic government.

He may also be concerned that the government has an opportunity to consolidate its support as the economy rebounds, helped by $43 billion of stimulus projects, many of which are seen as populist measures to win over traditional Thaksin voters.

WHAT ARE THE "RED SHIRTS" PLANNING?

The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) wants to hold protests demanding that parliament be dissolved and a snap election be held, arguing the coalition is unelected and came to power undemocratically.

It is expected to announce its full plans this week. It is likely Abhisit will invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) to allow the military to control the rally and stop it spreading through the capital.

IS THERE A THREAT OF UNREST?

Yes. Tension remains high and many analysts and political commentators believe violent confrontations could take place, either inspired by frustrated "red shirts" or orchestrated by outside agents keen to create unrest and discredit Thaksin.

The last six UDD rallies were peaceful but did little to shake the government, unlike violent street protests last April, which many thought would lead to Abhisit's resignation.

Some rating agencies downgraded Thailand after the riots in April. Securities analysts say political uncertainty will weigh on Thailand's stock market this month.

WHO WILL BE TARGETED IN THE CENSURE DEBATE?

Abhisit is likely to escape unharmed from the televised parliamentary showdown but the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai will go all out to destabilize and discredit his fragile government.

Controversial former diplomat Kasit Piromya will be the main target. He was appointed foreign minister a year ago, soon after he appeared on stage during a week-long airport occupation by "yellow shirt" anti-Thaksin demonstrators that helped undermine an elected pro-Thaksin government.

Kasit is also under fire for his handling of a diplomatic row with Cambodia involving Thaksin, which has embarrassed the government and shows no sign of being resolved.

Also likely to figure is a corruption scandal over a $2.7 billion health care scheme, which led to the resignation of two ministers, and Abhisit's plans to cancel a contract, signed when Thaksin was in office, with telecoms group Loxley to run an online lottery.

Puea Thai will also call for the dissolution of Abhisit's Democrat Party over irregularities in a $7.8 million election campaign donation in 2005 from cement manufacturer TPI Polene.

(Editing by Alan Raybould and Paul Tait)