China's support for more Iran sanctions in doubt

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Underneath the declarations that six key world powers are united in their push for new U.N. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Western capitals fear that China may be breaking ranks.

But the United States and its Western allies hope Russia's support for ratcheting up the pressure on Iran will help to persuade China, a veto-wielding permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, not to block new measures against Tehran.

Representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China met in New York on Saturday to discuss prospects for further punitive steps against Iran, but China made clear it opposed more punitive action for now.

Five members of the group and the European Union sent senior officials -- so-called "political directors" -- to the meeting. But China sent a low-level diplomat from its U.N. mission, which Western diplomats said was a virtual snub.

No decisions were taken at the meeting which Russian delegate Sergei Ryabkov described as "inconclusive."

After Saturday's three-hour meeting, senior EU official Robert Cooper summarized the discussions.

"The group remains united and underlines its unity and remains committed to the two-track approach," Cooper said. "We will continue to seek a negotiated solution, but consideration of appropriate further measures has also begun."

Cooper's statement implied that China, too, remained committed to the "two-track approach" -- a combination of engaging Iran while pursuing sanctions to pressure it to halt sensitive atomic activities, such as uranium enrichment.

Iran refuses to halt its enrichment work, which Western nations fear is at the heart of a secret atomic weapons program. Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are limited to the peaceful generation of electricity.

But several participants in the meeting said it was no longer clear that Bejing would vote for a new sanctions resolution if it was put to a vote at the Security Council.

CHINA PLAYS "HARD TO GET"

Western diplomats and analysts, however, said that China's willingness to continue to participate in discussions on Iran sanctions meant that Beijing was eager to stay with the group and might be persuaded not to veto any new measures.

"It looks like the Chinese are playing hard to get," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "They are strutting their newfound role of global kingmaker, and they are peeved at the coming U.S. arms sales to Taiwan."

"They also sincerely believe that sanctions won't help resolve the nuclear crisis with Iran and they worry that moving further down the sanctions path could harm China's energy security interests," he said.

Fitzpatrick said all depends on Russia. If Moscow backs a new sanctions resolution, China will not veto it. Even if China decides not to vote in favor of new sanctions, it could abstain and allow the Security Council to adopt new measures

German Chancellor Angela Merkel left open the possibility that the push for a new package of U.N. sanctions would not be successful, making clear that Berlin was ready to join in non-U.N. sanctions against the Islamic Republic if necessary.

"Germany will take part in sanctions (outside the U.N.) with other countries that are pursuing the same goal," Merkel told reporters in Berlin at a joint briefing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Russia and China have strong commercial ties to Iran, which analysts and diplomats say is one of the reasons they worked hard to dilute proposed measures in three previous sanctions resolutions before the Security Council approved them.

After softening the proposed measures, Russia and China voted in favor of all three resolutions.

Unlike China, Russia has made clear that it will support a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, albeit not tough ones.

Diplomats said Tehran's rejection of a U.N. proposal that Russia take Iran's low-enriched uranium and enrich it further for use in a Tehran research reactor that makes medical isotopes deeply annoyed Russia, as did revelations about a new enrichment site near Qom that Iran hid from U.N. inspectors.

"The Russians used to be the ones slowing down the sanctions process," said one Western diplomat familiar with the outcome of Saturday's meeting. "Now it's the Chinese."

Diplomats who attended Saturday's meeting said they had not given up hope on the Chinese. Much will depend, they said, on whom Beijing chooses to replace Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei, who is being transferred to Geneva.

"We'll know more about China's position on Iran when we know who'll be its new political director," said one diplomat. "And we hope they don't take a long time to appoint one."

Delegates at Saturday's meeting said they hoped to continue their sanctions discussions by telephone later this month. They said negotiating a new resolution would take months.

But several Western diplomats said they wanted the process of negotiating a new sanctions resolution to be over by May, when signatories of the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty gather at U.N. headquarters to discuss ways of upgrading the treaty to deal with threats like Iran and North Korea.

Key to maintaining the pressure on Iran, diplomats say, is keeping the six-power coalition on Iran intact. Since Saturday's meeting, Iran has already begun contacting some of the six powers to assure them that it is ready to talk.

That, some diplomats say, is proof that the six powers have the ability to influence decision-makers in Iran.