Scenarios: How will Nigerian VP use executive power?

ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigerian Vice President Goodluck Jonathan's first use of executive powers has helped restore order in the city of Jos, but some question its legality since the ailing president has not formally given up his duties.

Jonathan, in his first use of executive power, on Tuesday directed soldiers and top security chiefs to the central city of Jos to stop four-days of clashes between Muslim and Christian gangs that have killed around 150.

A government official told Reuters the vice president would continue to perform presidential duties in Yar'Adua's absence as allowed by a federal court ruling.

President Umaru Yar'Adua has been absent from Nigeria for nearly two months receiving treatment for a heart ailment in hospital in Saudi Arabia.

Before Tuesday's military order, the vice president had only represented Yar'Adua at cabinet meetings and official functions.

Following are two possible scenarios for the 52-year-old vice president:

VICE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO EXERCISE EXECUTIVE POWERS

If Jonathan continues to perform presidential duties for Yar'Adua, his decisions could spark legal action from opponents and bring more political uncertainty.

A federal court judge last week said the vice president could perform all the executive duties for the president without an official transfer of powers, but could not be "acting president."

"Everything is moving fine administratively unless that court ruling is overturned, but for now it is still in force," said the government official, who wished not to be identified.

Jonathan's further use of executive powers could also provoke a backlash by some northern politicians, who believe the presidency should stay in the hands of a northerner for another five years.

There is an unwritten agreement in Africa's most populous country that the office of president rotates every two terms between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian south.

Yar'Adua is a northerner mid-way through his first term, while Jonathan is from the south.

Investors say a more assertive vice president could help ease uncertainty in sub-Saharan Africa's second biggest economy.

"Many investors are deferring decisions until there is clarity," said Bismark Rewane, head of Lagos-based consultancy Financial Derivatives.

"The markets would be put at ease if the vice president showed initiative on the petroleum industry bill or other reforms that would enhance his administration's credibility," he added.

VICE PRESIDENT STOPS PERFORMING EXECUTIVE DUTIES

If the vice president stopped performing executive duties, pressure would increase for President Umaru Yar'Adua to formally transfer over powers or return to Nigeria.

Analysts viewed Jonathan's military order more as a necessity to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Jos than as a proactive step declaring his new powers.

"The constitution gives only the commander-in-chief the authority to deploy troops. It isn't clear whether in his absence and without a transfer of powers the vice president can do so," said Lai Mohammed, spokesman for the opposition Action Congress party.

"(Jonathan) is not the acting president so it is a very confusing situation. It wouldn't be like this if Yar'Adua had just handed over power."

Nobel literature laureate Wole Soyinka led hundreds of protesters in Abuja last week to parliament to demand the president transfer power to the vice president or provide a full report on his health.

A federal court in Nigeria's capital Abuja is expected this week to hear lawsuits from the Nigerian Bar Association and two former lawmakers against the government which accuse the president of breaching the constitution by not transferring over power.

The political uncertainty also threatens a widely popular amnesty program for former militants, which has brought relative peace to the oil-rich Niger Delta.

Former militant leaders are reconsidering their decision to lay down their weapons since the program to rehabilitate and reintegrate ex-rebels has stalled with Yar'Adua's absence.

Nigeria's main militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), said it would decide by the end of January whether to lift its ceasefire and resume attacks against Africa's biggest energy sector.

(Additional reporting by Felix Onuah; editing by Philippa Fletcher)