SCENARIOS: What Afghan, Yemen meetings may achieve

LONDON (Reuters) - International gatherings on Afghanistan and Yemen next week will seek to strengthen efforts to stabilize both nations and stop al Qaeda from using either as a base.

The more high-profile meeting of the two, on Afghanistan on January 28, may result in greater Afghan responsibility for security. A draft communique says Afghan forces will begin to take "security primacy" in some provinces by early 2011.

Britain says the meeting also will look at how Afghanistan's neighbors could work together to help stabilize it.

Attendees will include Afghan President Hamid Karzai, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and foreign ministers of Afghanistan's other foreign partners.

In preparation for the London conference Turkey will host a meeting of Afghanistan's neighbors on January 26. although it has not said which countries will attend.

The other London meeting, on January 27, is on Yemen, which is seeking to crush al Qaeda after the group's Yemen-based wing said it was behind a December 25 bid to blow up a U.S. airliner.

The West and neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia fear the southern Arabian country could become a failed state allowing al Qaeda to use it as a launchpad for more international attacks.

Foreign ministers of Yemen's main partners in the West and the Gulf are expected to try to mobilize international support for the country and identify what needs to be done by the government and by its allies to tackle its challenges.

Following are scenarios on what could be achieved.

AFGHANISTAN

SECURITY

The draft communique says Afghanistan and foreign partners will agree to a "framework" for turning the country's security over to Afghan forces, with the process to begin this year.

The draft commits to "an agreement that transition will begin in 2010 and that a number of provinces may transition to Afghan security primacy, with ISAF moving to a supporting role within them, by early 2011," referring to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

It says Afghanistan will set up an organization to "reach out to insurgents," with the international community agreeing to pay for the reintegration program.

Foreign donors will commit to channeling more of their aid through the Afghan government and providing debt relief to Kabul, although precise figures were left blank in the draft.

Afghanistan would also commit to setting up a transparent system for managing its mining and energy sectors, both potentially big money-earners for the aid-reliant economy.

NATO plans to create a stronger civilian representative post to help lead international efforts in Afghanistan and Britain's Kabul ambassador Mark Sedwill is a leading candidate, a Kabul-based diplomat said.

The new post would have power over aid funds and a mandate to coordinate reconstruction with the U.S.-led military effort. The appointment may be announced around the time of the meeting.

GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

Delegates will seek to inject new momentum into Afghan reconciliation efforts after months of election uncertainty and the deadliest year in the long-running war against the Taliban.

Karzai will be expected to flesh out plans for his second five-year term after he won a tainted election last year. After his swearing-in took place in November, Karzai promised to fight rampant corruption and to take control of his country's security before his five-year term ends.

THE REGION

British officials have said they are keen to persuade regional players to work together in achieving a stable Afghanistan. They have not yet specified how this would be done although media reports have spoken of some kind of regional council involving India and Pakistan.

Rivalry between the two countries is seen as a major obstacle to stabilizing Afghanistan, where India has been expanding its presence following the fall of the Pakistan-backed Taliban in 2001.