ANALYSTS' VIEW-"Back to basics": Bin Laden hits U.S.-Israel tie

(Reuters) - Osama bin Laden claimed responsibility for the December 25 failed bombing of a U.S.-bound plane in an audio tape Al Jazeera television said on Sunday was of the Al Qaeda leader.

Bin Laden said the attempted attack was a continuation of al Qaeda's policy since the September 11, 2001 attacks, explaining that "If it was possible to carry our messages to you by words we wouldn't have carried them to you by planes."

Here are some analysts' views on the statement.

ABDELBARI ATWAN, AL QAEDA EXPERT, EDITOR AL-QUDS-AL-ARABI

NEWSPAPER

(Atwan met bin Laden in November 1996)

It is bin Laden's voice and style. The poetry, the references he makes are identifiably his.

The Obama-Osama reference means he is putting himself on an equal footing with Obama. It is an extremely confident move and he is doing it because he knows that Obama's popularity in the Arab world is starting to slip.

The timing is very significant, coinciding with the faltering Arab-Israeli peace process and mounting frustration on the Arab street at what is going on in Gaza.

OMAR ASHOUR, EXPERT ON ISLAMIST GROUPS, EXETER UNIVERSITY

This is saying 'al Qaeda central is still operational, we're still controlling our franchises'. Bin Laden has only rarely directly claimed the actions of other offshoots like those in Iraq and or the Maghreb.

The emphasis on Gaza is a rallying cry he has used before. It points at the accumulated injustices of the Palestinians there as a result of Israeli action and America's support for Israel. There's no mention of Egypt's plan to build an underground wall -- a major theme of debate in the Middle East at the moment -- as criticizing Egypt could alienate potential al Qaeda supporters in Egypt. While many Egyptians may have no great love for the government, they rate al Qaeda far lower.

Framed in this way, Gaza is a less divisive issue than Afghanistan or Pakistan, which are conflicts that are more problematic because they contain Muslim versus Muslim elements.

NOMAN BENOTMAN, LIBYAN ANALYST, FORMER BIN LADEN ASSOCIATE

It's a very smart 'back to basics' message, reminding his audience it is all about Israel and America. His main audience is the Arab world, where al Qaeda has lost substantial moral support.

The reference to September 11 gives al Qaeda's actions a continuity and a definable shape. There may be a feeling that the group's motives have become obscured or 'lost in translation' over time and this is an attempt at repeating and emphasizing them in simple terms.

There is also again the suggestion that 'we are forced to take these violent actions' which may attract some in the intended Arab audience.

HENRY WILKINSON, SECURITY ANALYST, JANUSIAN CONSULTANTS

Assuming this is indeed him, then most importantly it shows bin Laden was alive at the time of the December 25 attack.

Secondly it shows how close al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is to al Qaeda's core cadre in Pakistan. Al Qaeda's senior leadership has not habitually take credit for the specific actions of other branches.

The rhetoric is very typical al Qaeda and the intended audience is the Islamic word and particularly the Arab street. The notion that bin Laden's messages are aimed principally at the West is questionable. I think most are aimed at his main constituency.

The line where he says "If it was possible to carry our messages to you by words we wouldn't have carried them to you by planes" is standard fare. The idea that 'you have left us no choice and you will only understand violence' is typical of terrorist groups.

LONDON-BASED SAUDI ANALYST MAI YAMANI

The Palestinian cause is the beating heart of the Middle East. If the previous Bush administration had focused on trying to solve the Arab-Israeli dispute then there would be no excuse for bin Laden, and this justification behind all this sort of propaganda would have tended to disintegrate.

(Reporting by William Maclean)