Scenarios: Afghan security, neighbors in focus at talks

This piece is part of a package of security and risk stories and factboxes before London meetings on Yemen and Afghanistan.

LONDON (Reuters) - An international conference on Afghanistan this week will seek a framework for the government to take over security and prod Kabul into quickening efforts to strengthen its forces and reach a political settlement of the war.

The gathering on Thursday in London will also seek a common approach among Afghanistan's neighbors on helping stabilize the country, where the conflict has dragged on for more than eight years and is increasingly unpopular with home electorates.

A draft communique says Afghan forces will start taking security "primacy" in some provinces by early 2011.

Attendees will include Afghan President Hamid Karzai, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and foreign ministers of Afghanistan's other foreign partners.

In preparation for the conference regional players including China, Russia, Iran and Tajikistan met on Tuesday in Istanbul to find a "single voice" in their approach to the conflict.

Following are scenarios on what could be achieved.

AFGHANISTAN SECURITY

The draft communique says Afghanistan and foreign partners will agree to a "framework" for turning the country's security over to Afghan forces, with the process to begin this year.

The draft commits to "an agreement that transition will begin in 2010 and that a number of provinces may transition to Afghan security primacy, with ISAF moving to a supporting role within them, by early 2011," referring to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

It says Afghanistan will set up an organization to "reach out to insurgents," with the international community agreeing to pay for the reintegration programme.

Karzai is expected to brief delegates on his plans to lure Taliban foot-soldiers from the conflict with cash, jobs and land, and trying to persuade insurgent leaders to sit down and talk about a peace settlement.

Foreign donors will commit to channeling more of their aid through the Afghan government and providing debt relief to Kabul, although precise figures were left blank in the draft.

GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

Delegates will seek to inject new momentum into Afghan reconciliation efforts after months of election uncertainty and the deadliest year in the long-running war against the Taliban.

Karzai is due to flesh out plans for his second five-year term after he won a tainted election last year. After his swearing-in in November, Karzai promised to fight rampant graft.

Afghanistan would also commit to setting up a transparent system for managing its mining and energy sectors, both potentially big money-earners for the aid-reliant economy.

NATO plans to create a stronger civilian representative post to help lead international efforts in Afghanistan and Britain's Kabul ambassador Mark Sedwill is a leading candidate, a Kabul-based diplomat said.

The new post would have power over aid funds and a mandate to coordinate reconstruction with the U.S.-led military effort. The appointment may be announced around the time of the meeting.

THE REGION

British officials want to persuade regional players to work together in achieving a stable Afghanistan. They have not yet specified how this would be done. Media reports have spoken of a kind of regional council involving India and Pakistan.

Rivalry between the two is seen as a barrier to stabilizing Afghanistan, where India has been expanding its presence following the fall of the Pakistan-backed Taliban in 2001.

(Reporting by Peter Graff, Emma Graham-Harrison and Sayed Salahuddin in Kabul, Myra Macdonald, Adrian Croft and Matt Falloon in London and Sue Pleming and Adam Entous in Washington)

(Editing by Ralph Boulton)