UPDATE 4-Estee Lauder raises view, US consumer not back yet

Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:40pm EST

* Q2 EPS $1.28 beats Wall St view $1.21

* Sales up 10.8 pct

* Raises full-year forecast

* Shares down 0.7 pct (Adds CEO comments, details of ad spending, stock action)

By Ben Klayman and Jessica Wohl

CHICAGO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Estee Lauder Cos Inc (EL.N) posted a far better-than-expected 62 percent jump in quarterly profit and boosted its full-year forecast but said U.S. shoppers have yet to start spending significantly again.

Sales rose after four quarters of declines, as consumers began to splurge on cosmetics. Sales jumped 18 percent in the Asia/Pacific region, but rose only 1.4 percent in the Americas.

Chief Executive Fabrizio Freda said the company is taking nothing for granted in the "difficult economy."

"I don't see yet this recovery and I'm cautious on how fast this will come," Freda said of the United States. "The U.S. is stable but the consumer is not yet back."

That contrasts with the company's strong growth in Asia. There, excluding Japan, the consumer "is already back," particularly in China, he added in an interview.

Back at home, Estee Lauder's best performing brands are the lower-priced Clinique and M.A.C. lines, which have worked on building relationships with consumers. Women appear to be switching from much pricier lines, such as La Mer, but sticking with prestige cosmetics, he said.

On Wednesday, smaller rival Elizabeth Arden Inc (RDEN.O) posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year outlook while also sounding a note of caution. [ID:nN27127104]

Shares of Estee Lauder fell 0.7 percent to $53.25, after a run-up of about 170 percent since the stock hit a 9-year-low of $19.82 in March. Arden's shares plunged 5 percent.

HIGHER FORECAST

Estee Lauder's second-quarter profit rose to $256.2 million, or $1.28 per share, from $158 million, or 80 cents per share, a year earlier.

Sales increased 10.8 percent to $2.26 billion. Just last week, it raised expectations for the quarter. [nN20183927]

Analysts on average expected $1.21 per share on sales of $2.24 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

JP Morgan analyst John Faucher said Estee Lauder has been cautious before.

"The real issue is they guided conservatively before and they crushed numbers, so what the market's going to be focusing on is - is there upside to their guidance again going forward?" he said.

For the full year, Estee Lauder expects earnings of $2.55 to $2.73 a share, excluding restructuring charges of 20 cents to 29 cents a share. The company previously forecast earnings of $1.95 to $2.10 a share before one-time items.

It also raised its sales growth forecast to 3 percent to 5 percent in constant-currency terms from its earlier forecast of flat sales to a 2 percent increase. It expects demand to be strongest in Asia and the skin care and makeup divisions.

Analysts were expecting $2.59 a share on sales of $7.78 billion, a 6 percent increase from 2009.

Estee Lauder's Freda does not expect to raise prices on existing products beyond normal inflationary pricing.

"The power of pricing not changing dramatically yet," he said."

In the latest quarter the company cut back on spending in areas such as advertising, keeping a cautious view as the economic downturn persisted.

It plans to increase spending well above first-half levels behind more effective advertising, merchandising and sampling. While such spending was down $75 million to $80 million in the first half from a year earlier, it will be up $150 million to $175 million in the second half.

For the third quarter, it sees earnings of 20 cents to 30 cents a share excluding one-time items, and net sales up 4 percent to 7 percent in constant-currency terms. Analysts were expecting 28 cents a share on a sales increase of 8.8 percent.

The company expects to realize savings of $275 to $300 million during the year, up from its previous forecast of $175 to $200 million. (Editing by John Wallace and Derek Caney)

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