UPDATE 2-Daiichi Sankyo Q3 profit up, outlook lifted

* Q3 profit rises 14.6 percent on Ranbaxy recovery

* Annual outlook lifted to above market expectations

* Stock down 3 pct, hopes for blood thinner Effient not met

* Analyst says outlook for fundamentals have not improved

By Yumiko Nishitani

TOKYO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Japan's No. 3 drugmaker, Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T), said on Friday its quarterly recurring profit rose 14.4 percent, and it boosted its annual outlook, citing a recovery at its Indian unit Ranbaxy Laboratories (RANB.BO).

But an upgrade had been expected and Daiichi's shares fell 3 percent after the results failed to match some bullish hopes, particularly for its blood thinner Effient, developed with Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and viewed as a potential blockbuster.

Daiichi lifted its recurring profit forecast for the year to March to 100 billion yen from 69 billion yen, beating the average SmartEstimate from Thomson Reuters StarMine, which weights analyst forecasts according to their record for accuracy, of a profit of 89 billion yen.

For the third quarter, recurring profit climbed to 38.4 billion yen.

But analysts were unimpressed.

"The upgrade only reflects an improved derivatives position at Ranbaxy and not improved fundamentals. It gives long-term investors no reason to buy the stock, especially when the sales of Effient have been weak," Deutsche Securities analyst Kenji Masuzoe said.

Effient was launched in Britain in March and in the United States in August.

Daiichi said its share of the product's sales so far this financial year has only been 1.2 billion yen, with income in the October-December third quarter just 300 million yen, compared with 1.0 billion yen for July-October.

"Sales of Effient so far have slightly underrun our expectations, but we believe positive responses from patients and doctors will help sharpen its expansion curve," Daiichi Sankyo senior managing director Hitoshi Matsuda told a news conference.

Uncertainty over the outlook for Ranbaxy, India's biggest generic drug maker, also remains, with a U.S. import ban, imposed due to alleged data falsification, still in place.

Daiichi Sankyo shares fell 3.1 percent to 1,882 yen, underperforming a 2 percent decline in the Nikkei stock average.

"I expect the stock to continue moving in its recent trading range of 1,600-2,000 yen, unless a major improvement in the sales of Effient emerges," Deutsche's Masuzoe said.

Daiichi's earnings plunged last financial year on a loss linked to its newly acquired stake in Ranbaxy.

This year, the positive impact of consolidating Ranbaxy's revenues has been muted by a stronger yen, spending to develop a key experimental blood clot drug in costly late stage trials, and initial marketing costs for Effient.

Even so, the potential blockbuster still puts Daiichi in a better position than its Japanese rivals, such as Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502.T), which have had development setbacks for key experimental drugs in the world's largest drug market [ID:nSP468416].

Daiichi was the first major Japanese drugmaker to report third-quarter results, while its bigger U.S. and European rivals this week reported mixed quarterly earnings.

Daiichi consolidates Ranbaxy's results with a quarter timelag. (Reporting by Yumiko Nishitani; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)