Q+A: How would talking to the Taliban work?

KABUL (Reuters) - The Taliban's leaders will decide soon about joining talks with the Afghan government, a spokesman said on Friday, after President Hamid Karzai invited them to a peace council as part of efforts to end years of fighting.

Karzai on Thursday set out plans for a loya jirga, an assembly of elders and influential Afghans, to initiate peace talks with the Taliban and called on the group's leaders to take part. The United States and its allies would not participate.

Foreign donors are funding an Afghan plan to reintegrate rank-and-file Taliban fighters using jobs and cash, an initiative the Taliban have described as a "trick."

Below are some questions and answers about possible talks.

WHY WOULD THE TALIBAN TALK WHEN THEY ARE STRONG?

The insurgency, composed of several factions, is at its strongest since the Taliban's removal in 2001. But it faces a surge in foreign troops and a concerted, relatively well-funded initiative to tempt foot soldiers with promises of cash and jobs.

Some Western diplomats also say fighters are weary of the battles that has gone on in the country for decades.

If the Taliban sit down to talks when they are at their strongest, they will have the most leverage.

"Both sides have similar perceptions that neither side can fully win. It is exactly at this point of equilibrium that negotiations become possible. But it's not an easy call," said Antonio Giustozzi of the London School of Economics.

HOW WOULD TALKS BE ARRANGED?

Karzai asked Saudi Arabia to play a "prominent" role in any peace process. The kingdom's foreign minister said it would act as mediator if the Taliban denied sanctuary to Osama bin Laden.

Saudi Arabia sponsored secret talks last year and was an interlocutor between Afghan officials and Taliban commanders. Western intelligence has also been reaching out to insurgents, even as the military targets them.

Karzai has long said the government needs to talk to the Taliban and already uses the former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan as a go-between with insurgents.

Pakistan's intelligence service could have a role based on its ties to some Taliban factions and also because so many senior Afghan Taliban are based in Pakistan.

But involvement so far has been limited because after decades of involvement in Afghan affairs, Pakistan intelligence is trusted by neither Kabul nor the Taliban, according to Ahmed Rashid, an expert on the hardline Islamists.

The United Nations envoy to Afghanistan has denied statements by a U.N. official that he met with members of the Taliban Quetta Shura in Dubai on January 8 and declined to comment on whether any meetings have taken place.

WHAT WOULD THEY WANT IN RETURN?

If a deal is reached and Karzai welcomes insurgents back to Kabul, he will probably have to give them ministerial jobs and faces the possibility some will form strong blocs in parliament.

As a precondition to talks, the Taliban demand the release of remaining Afghan prisoners at the U.S. prison camp at Guantanamo Bay and the removal of all Taliban members from blacklists.

Ahead of this week's London conference, the U.N. said it had removed five former Taliban officials from its sanctions list.

Karzai seems open to a broader government if it brings some form of peace. He has said insurgents could be asked to attend a "loya jirga" or grand council this year.

WHAT WOULD THE WEST GET?

A peace deal would allow Western leaders to stop pouring troops into Afghanistan, scale back spending, and claim they had achieved some of the goals of the war.

Denouncing al Qaeda, and preventing it operating from Afghan territory, would also be a key demand from the West.

WHICH INSURGENTS WILL BE TARGETED?

Two groups Karzai says he wants returned to the fold of government are the Taliban, led by Mullah Omar, and Hezb-e-Islami under veteran anti-Soviet commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Hezb-e-Islami have said they object to occupying armies, not Karzai, and would be willing to talk to the president once there is a clear timetable for withdrawing foreign troops.

The Taliban say they are not interested in talking, but Rashid says the tone of Mullah Omar's statements has changed.

Since the secret talks started in Saudi Arabia, the Taliban have "shown the first hint of flexibility," he said, and compared Omar's tone to that of a diplomat, rather than an extremist.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, however, has said engaging Omar is an unrealistic goal and highly unlikely for now.

WILL KEY NEIGHBOURS SUPPORT TALKS?

Pakistan has much to gain from the Taliban reconciling with the Afghan government, as it can re-establish a strong foothold in a neighbor it has always sought to dominate.

But reconciliation brings the possibility of a larger role for rival India, which has strong links with Kabul and investment in infrastructure and trade that could flourish in peacetime.

Iran is likely to see any talks as a threat to its relative strength in the region. Tehran almost went to war against the Taliban in the late 1990s and the two are natural enemies, but the presence of a destabilizing insurgency serves Iran's interest in keeping pressure on U.S. troops.

(Reporting by Golnar Motevalli and Emma Graham-Harrison in Kabul and William Maclean in London; Editing by Ron Popeski)