LATAM WEEKAHEAD-Brazil's Copom minutes, IPCA inflation in focus

NEW YORK Jan 31 (Reuters) - The minutes from Brazil's latest central bank meeting plus inflation data for the month of January will be the hot data topic for the coming week.

Minutes from Brazil's Jan. 27 monetary policy committee (Copom) meeting, when they left the so-called Selic rate BRCBMP=ECI unchanged at a record low of 8.75 percent, will be closely scrutinized for indications of when an increase may come.

The central bank releases the minutes on Thursday, Feb. 4.

"We expect it to sound unequivocally more hawkish with the board highlighting the recent negative inflation surprises and its impact on inflation expectations," Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

"Still, we believe the board will not pre-commit to any action and remain very data dependent," the bank said.

On Friday, Feb. 5, Brazil's benchmark IPCA inflation index BRIPCA=ECI for the full month of January will be released.

Barclays Capital forecasts a 0.60 percent rise for the IPCA versus an increase of 0.37 percent in the previous period.

"Upward pressures on regulated prices and on food inflation are likely to boost IPCA inflation, not only in January, but during the first quarter of 2010. However, we expect it to moderate after peaking in the first three months of the year," Barclays wrote to clients on Friday.

Monday, Feb. 1, is a market holiday in Mexico.

Below is a selection of other key economic data points on the calendar for the coming week:

Monday, Feb. 1:

* Brazil - January trade balance. IDEAglobal forecasts a deficit of $1.133 trillion versus $1.435 trillion in December. "While the decline in the overall balance is in part the consequence of a seasonal pattern, it is also expected to be a common thread of 2010," IDEAglobal wrote to clients on Friday.

"We expect the current account balance to widen significantly in 2010, printing between minus $45.0 billion and minus $50.0 billion. Such widening should not be a concern on the financing side, due to the attractiveness of Brazilian asset markets, yet might have negative implications for the currency," the firm said.

* Peru - January CPI. The latest Reuters poll of economists forecasts a rise of 0.36 percent versus an increase of 0.32 percent in the previous period.

Citigroup forecasts a rise of 0.38 percent, saying: "Our projection reflects in particular the increase in fuel and food prices." An increase in fuel prices by the state-owned oil company plus a strong rainy season in the south of the country coupled with a transportation strike likely boosted food prices, the firm argues.

Tuesday, Feb. 2:

* Argentina - January tax revenue. The latest Reuters forecast of economists puts tax collections up 19.9 percent year-on-year to 28.9 billion pesos. [ID:nN2931770]

* Brazil - December industrial production. Barclays forecasts a year-on-year increase of 18.6 percent, saying: "On a monthly comparison, industrial production is moderating. The 18.6 percent year-on-year is compatible with minus 0.4 percent month-on-month seasonally adjusted."

Thursday, Feb. 4:

* Mexico - January consumer confidence. Citigroup forecasts a reading of 80.3, up slightly from December's 80.1. "We consider that factors determining consumer's purchasing power remain weak. This, along with a rebound in inflation, suggests that consumer confidence should continue subdued in the first month of this year," the firm said.

* Peru - Central bank monetary policy decision. No change is expected in the benchmark reference rate of 1.25 percent. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said: "Real GDP came in significantly better in November, but BCRP signaled a pause and will remain on hold at 1.25 percent." The firm doesn't see Peru starting to raise interest rates until the year's second half.

Friday, Feb. 5:

* Chile - December's IMACEC, the central bank economic activity index. Barclays forecasts a drop to 3.0 percent from the previous period's report of 3.14 percent. "Even though there was some payback in industrial production in December, we believe the overall economy will have held better," the firm said.

* Colombia - January CPI. IDEAglobal forecasts a 0.63 percent month-on-month rise putting the year-on-year rise at 2.04 percent. "Inflation is expected to remain largely contained in January, with the exception of food prices, boosted by the dry weather conditions created by El Nino," the firm said. (Reporting by Daniel Bases; Editing by Jan Paschal)