U.S. sees Taliban spreading but signs of Afghan hope

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence and military chiefs offered mixed assessments of the Afghanistan war on Tuesday, acknowledging the Taliban's reach is expanding but pointing to signs of progress as more U.S. forces arrive.

President Barack Obama has ordered 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan with the goal of weakening the Taliban enough for the Afghan army and police to begin to take over.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, told lawmakers that Taliban insurgents have "a growing influence in most of Afghanistan's provinces" but said it is too early to give up hope in reversing that trend.

"It's better than it's ever been and we're just a few months into it," Mullen said, referring to the infusion of additional U.S. troops since December.

In a separate hearing, Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, said Afghanistan's Taliban insurgency has been adjusting its tactics as more U.S. troops arrive.

"The Afghan Taliban-dominated insurgency has become increasingly dangerous and destabilizing. Despite the loss of some key leaders, insurgents have adjusted their tactics to maintain momentum following the arrival of additional U.S. forces last year," Blair said.

The director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, said U.S. troops face an "increasingly capable insurgency," citing the Afghan government's "inability to extend security throughout the country, and insurgent access to sanctuaries in Pakistan."

Burgess said the Taliban insurgency, once based in southern Afghanistan, "retains momentum and has spread west and north." He added that Afghan security forces are "growing but not keeping pace with the Taliban's ability to exploit the security vacuum."

The militant group al Qaeda also has increased its activities in Afghanistan, but Blair said its overall contribution to the insurgency is still "modest."

Obama on December 1 decided to deploy another 30,000 troops on top of the nearly 70,000 already there. Mullen said 4,500 of the 30,000 additional troops already have arrived in Afghanistan, and 18,000 will be there by late spring.

'EXECUTED OUR STRATEGY'

"Right now, the Taliban believe they're winning. Eighteen months from now, if we've executed our strategy, we'll know that they won't ... that they can't," Mullen told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the same hearing that U.S. troop levels are expected to reach 98,000 by the end of September. Mullen said that by the middle of this year, the United States will have more troops in Afghanistan than in Iraq for the first time since 2003.

Obama's troop surge has gained support in Congress. But Republicans and Democrats alike have voiced concern about the linchpin of Obama's new strategy in Afghanistan -- accelerating the training of Afghan forces so they can take over responsibility for security.

"The question is whether the Afghans are capable and willing to do their part?" said Senator Evan Bayh, a member of Obama's Democratic Party.

"When you look at the history of that country, the complexity of that country, I think skeptics kind of wonder whether even with our best efforts we'll be able to get the job done."

Obama set the goal of starting to pull some U.S. troops out in July 2011. But Gates made clear that it was not a fixed date, saying any gradual drawdown would depend on the outcome of a policy review later this year.

"Both Admiral Mullen and I are committed that if we determine that our strategy is not working that we will not recommend just plunging ahead blindly without a change of course," Gates said.

Mullen said that "a healthy skepticism is good" but "a terminal skepticism at this point, it's far too soon." He pointed to "signs in many places now of uplifted spirits on the part of the Afghan people where security is turned around."

U.S. military commanders complain that Obama's handover plans are being hampered by a shortage of trainers, particularly from European allies. Mullen said he attended a meeting last week with other NATO military chiefs and the issue of trainers will be discussed again later this month.

Blair also referred to the shortage of international trainers and said this was hampering the expansion of the Afghan national army. The Afghan police, he said, has even less training and resources and is beset with high rates of corruption and absenteeism.

"Many Afghans perceive the police to be corrupt and more dangerous than the Taliban," Blair said.

(Reporting by Adam Entous, Sue Pleming and Susan Cornwell; Editing by Paul Simao and Will Dunham)