UPDATE 2-World oil use to peak at as low as 95 mln bpd-BP

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Thu Feb 4, 2010 10:37am EST

* Sees global demand peaking after 2020

* Says demand may peak at 95 million bpd to 110 million bpd

(Adds details from paragraph 2)

By Keith Weir and Alex Lawler

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - World oil demand will peak at a maximum of around 110 million barrels per day (bpd) after 2020, BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said on Thursday in a bold prediction from the head of a major oil company.

The comments come as interest in the view that the world's oil demand may soon reach a high point and then fall has grown following a drop in global oil use last year due to the economic crisis and efforts to combat climate change.

"It will probably occur beyond 2020 -- who knows what the number will be, but it will be somewhere between sort of 95 and... 110 million bpd, probably, versus the 85 we consume today," Hayward, asked when a peak in demand would come, told BBC Radio 4.

Demand for some key fuels may have reached a high point already in developed markets. The oil industry would never sell more gasoline in the United States or Europe than it had during the boom in 2007, Hayward said.

Some believe oil demand may have already peaked in countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) because of more fuel efficiency and the use of alternatives.

"When we look at the OECD countries -- the U.S., Europe and Japan -- I think the level of demand that we have seen in 2006 and 2007, we will never see again," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, told Reuters last month.

Hayward's comments go further in giving a timeframe and production level at which global demand may peak as growth in emerging countries balances falling consumption in the developed world.

London-based BP vies with Royal Dutch Shell RDSa. as Europe's largest oil company by market value.

SUPPLY PEAK?

A six-year oil price rally that ended in 2008 led to increased interest in the theory that world oil supply may be nearing its peak.

Peak supply had long been consigned to the fringes of informed opinion, and the issue faded as economic slowdown eroded demand. BP has long dismissed the view that there is not enough oil in the ground.

"World demand will peak before its supply peaks because there is plenty of oil in the world, there really is," Hayward said in the radio interview.

"There are some challenges getting it out in some places, mainly to do with geopolitics, but there is plenty of oil in the world."

Oil prices are currently around $76 a barrel and Hayward said they needed to stay relatively close to that level in order for new supplies to be developed and to provide sufficient income for exporting countries.

"In the non-OPEC world, the area of difficult oil, the deep water of Angola, the deep water of Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, we need an oil price of $60 or more to allow us to invest and make a return on our capital.

"In the OPEC world, it turns out the oil is a lot easier to get out, so it's less expensive but they've got the challenge of balancing their domestic budgets and they also need prices of $60-$70 dollars per barrel." (Editing by Stefano Ambrogi and Anthony Barker)

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