PREVIEW-Sanofi Q4 seen up, cautious for 2010

* Q4 earnings due on Wednesday, Feb 10 at 0730 GMT

* Q4 adj. net seen up 3.5 pct at 1.684 bln euros

* Q4 sales seen up 4 pct at 7.371 bln ($10.23 billion)

* 2010 EPS forecasts from dip to low single-digit growth

* Updates on generics, Lovenox, Merial-ISP JV

By Caroline Jacobs

PARIS, Feb 5 (Reuters) - French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis
(SASY.PA) is expected to post a 3.5 percent rise in
fourth-quarter adjusted net profit next week but give a prudent
forecast for 2010 when battles with generic rivals will
intensify.

Challenges to several of Sanofi's key drugs will grow with
cancer drug Taxotere losing its patent exclusivity and the
possible launch of a cheaper version of anti-clotter Lovenox.

In addition, the benefit of H1N1 flu vaccine sales that will
be partly recorded in the fourth quarter could diminish as the
severity of the swine flu pandemic recedes and governments begin
to cancel contracts for shots.

Analysts are eying updates on how badly copycats to
bloodthinner Plavix in Europe and cancer drug Eloxatin in the
United States are denting sales and to what extend Sanofi will
adjust its forecast for H1N1 sales this quarter.

Sanofi raised its 2009 outlook in October, seeing adjusted
earnings per share growth at constant rates of around 11 percent
due to an estimated $500 million euro windfall from H1N1 jabs.
It forecast similar H1N1 sales in the first quarter of 2010.

Several analysts expect Sanofi to guide for low single-digit
EPS growth with Deutsche Bank betting on flat to low
single-digit growth and Cazenove predicting guidance of between
a decline of 1 percent to a rise of 3 percent.

JP Morgan expects Sanofi should be able to achieve mid
single-digit growth this year but that "... for prudence we
believe it may guide to low single-digit, due to the many moving
parts in 2010," analyst Alexandra Hauber said in an investor
note.

Sanofi's earnings will be the last from the European
pharmaceutical groups, many of which are cutting costs and
reviewing research and development to deal with generic threats
and governments pruning healthcare spending.

Among the uncertainties facing Sanofi is whether the U.S.
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will approve a copy of
Lovenox, a complex biological drug, made by the generic unit of
Swiss drugmaker Novartis (NOVN.VX). [ID:nLDE60L1US]

More than 20 percent of Sanofi's sales, excluding the loss
of Lovenox, are exposed to patent expiries in the years 2009 to
2013 when Sanofi aims to be able to launch a period of growth,
hoping the diversification of its business will pay off.

Sanofi set foot in the U.S. over-the-counter market when it
bought Chattem CHTT.O and expects to widen its Merial animal
health business into a joint venture with Merck's (MRK.N)
Intervet/Schering Plough.

It has also been active in biotech partnerships to replenish
its pipeline.

One of its most promising deals is with BiPar for its triple
negative breast cancer candidate BSI-201. The drug is in Phase
III clinical trials but the FDA in December gave it fast-track
status, meaning the regulator will shorten the time to review a
promising drug that could tackle a serious disease.

Sanofi shares are trading at 8.4 times expected 2010
earnings per share, underperforming competitors GlaxoSmithKline
(GSK.L), Novartis and Roche (ROG.VX).

Below is a summary of the fourth-quarter results poll of 12
analysts. The figures are in billions of euros unless stated
differently.

Sales Curr.Oper.Prof Adj. net Adj. EPS
Average 7.371 2.349 1.684 1.32
Median 7.364 2.344 1.720 1.33
Lowest 7.089 2.167 1.400 1.22
Highest 7.605 2.568 1.956 1.50
Q4 2008 7.089 2.198 1.627 1.25
Av.Change 4 pct 6.9 pct 3.5 pct 6 pct

Key Drugs Average Pct change vs Q4 2008
Lantus 789 11.9
Lovenox 761 1.6
Plavix 596 - 9.7
Taxotere 546 0.9
Eloxatine 120 -66.3
Aprovel 305 0.4
Ambien 190 -16.2
Vaccines 1.122 58.3
(Editing by David Cowell)