Q+A: Is Pakistani Taliban leader Mehsud dead?

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik told reporters on Wednesday he had "credible information" that Pakistan Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud was dead but did not have confirmation.

A frenzy of rumors has spread this week that Mehsud had died after being wounded last month by a missile-firing U.S. drone aircraft. Mehsud became chief of the Pakistani Taliban, allied with the Afghan Taliban and fighting to bring down Pakistan's U.S.-backed government, after former leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed by an unmanned drone in August. Mehsud is a tribal name and the two were not related.

Following are some questions and answers about the mystery and the possible implications if Hakimullah Mehsud were dead:

WHY THE RUMOURS NOW?

A U.S. drone fired missiles on January 14 at a compound in the South Waziristan region on the Afghan border where Mehsud was believed to have been, but his fate was not known, Pakistani security officials said.

At least one Taliban member said he had been wounded but survived. Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq denied talk of Mehsud's death saying he had not even been at the location of the attack.

Two days later, the Taliban issued an audio tape which they said was of their leader, denying he was dead or wounded.

Pakistani intelligence agents later said Mehsud may have been targeted in another drone strike, on two vehicles in North Waziristan on January 17, and may have been wounded.

On Tuesday, a Taliban official told journalists Mehsud had died of his wounds while being taken to the city of Karachi. Some Pakistani security agents also said they believed he had died but Taliban spokesman Tariq again denied that, telling a television station Mehsud was fine.

WHAT DO WE KNOW FOR SURE?

Very little. Various Taliban and Pakistani security officials, usually speaking off the record, have said different things at different times.

Both the Pakistani army and government had been saying they had no credible information and could not confirm that Mehsud has been killed. A U.S. counter-terrorism official said in Washington on Tuesday he could not confirm Mehsud's death and it was up to the Taliban to prove he was alive.

Interior Minister Malik revealed on Wednesday he now had "credible information" Mehsud was dead but he did not elaborate.

WHAT ARE IMPLICATIONS OF HIS DEATH?

The Pakistani Taliban suffered a series of setbacks last year, beginning with an army offensive in the Swat valley, northwest of Islamabad, which the militants had taken over.

Their then leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed on August 5 and the army launched another big offensive on their South Waziristan bastion in mid-October, capturing most strongholds. Hakimullah Mehsud's death would be another big blow but not a mortal one.

Another militant would emerge to take his place, just as Hakimullah replaced Baitullah, who rose to prominence after militant commander Nek Mohammad was killed in 2004.

A possible successor would be Hakimullah Mehsud's deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman, who is in charge of militant forces in South Waziristan. Newspapers have reported that a little known militant commander from the Orakzai region, Noor Jamal, also known as Toofan, would replace Mehsud. Jamal telephoned a Reuters reporter on Wednesday to deny Mehsud was dead.

WOULD VIOLENCE EASE?

Mehsud's death could be expected to disrupt temporarily the Taliban campaign of bomb attacks in towns and cities across Pakistan while a new leader emerges. There has been an easing of the tempo of bomb attacks in recent weeks, although 34 people were killed in twin bombings in Karachi last Friday.

The al Qaeda-linked Pakistani Taliban are part of a militant network that includes groups from Punjab province, and has a presence in most parts of the country. That network remains intact and highly dangerous.

Some analysts expect there would be a brief surge of militant attacks in retaliation, if and when Mehsud was killed.

Mehsud's death would be unlikely to have any impact on the Afghan Taliban, who are not fighting in Pakistan, although the army's capture of Mehsud's strongholds in South Waziristan, which had become a global Islamist hub, is likely to have disrupted networks sending supplies and recruits into eastern Afghanistan.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)