PREVIEW-BNP profit to benefit from Fortis, investment banking

* Q4 results Wed Feb 17, 0700 local time (0600 GMT)

* Average net profit forecast 1.058 bln euros vs loss

* Possible Greek exposure, bonuses in focus

* Dividend seen at 1.50 eur vs 1.0 euros yr earlier

PARIS, Feb 12 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), France's
biggest bank by market capitalisation, is expected to return to
profit in the fourth quarter from a loss a year earlier, with
earnings driven by its investment banking and Fortis arms.

A Reuters poll of 13 analysts gave an average net profit
forecast of 1.06 billion euros ($1.45 billion). A year earlier,
the bank had made a loss of 1.37 billion euros while it posted a
net profit of 1.31 billion euros in the third quarter.

The Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forecast from 26
analysts is for a net profit of 942 million euros.

BNP is also seen raising its 2009 dividend to 1.50 euros
from a 1 euro payout for 2008.

Analysts see Fortis contributing 502 million euros to BNP
Paribas' profit, while its corporate and investment banking
division is expected to post a profit of 747 million euros.

Analysts will also be looking for any comments regarding the
bank's possible exposure to the current economic woes of Greece
and over its bonus payments, following a decision by France to
tax the bonuses of traders.

BNP has a relatively small presence in Greece compared with
rivals Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA),
which respectively control Greek banks Emporiki CBGr.AT and
Geniki (GHBr.AT).

However, some analysts have said it could be exposed to
Greece's debt woes through its market and trading operations.

Earlier this week, BNP Chief Executive Baudouin Prot said
the exposure of French banks to Greece was "not an issue".
[ID:nWEB9718].

Below is a poll of analyst forecasts.

BNP PARIBAS, Q3 (figures in millions of euros)

NET GROSS OP PROFIT REVENUES COSTS RISK CHARGE
AVERAGE 1,058 4,072 10,241 -6,170 -2,363
MEDIAN 978 3,978 10,072 -6,171 -2,334
HIGHEST 1,624 4,917 11,191 -6,345 -2,513
LOWEST 862 3,799 9,955 -5,978 -2,246
----------------------------------------------------------------
Q4 2008 -1,366 542 4,850 -4,308 -2,552
Yr-on-yr pct change (based on average forecast)

--- x7.5 x2 +43% -7.4%

($1=.7314 Euro)
(Reporting by Matthieu Protard; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)